We got rained out of wheat harvest last night.. then another inch today.

Im not surprised by the mini washout we’re seeing.  HRW has fallen $3.60 since combines started in Oklahoma.  Dryland yields are not great.. 15 to 40 here.. add 15 bu over by I 35.. but subtract 10 bu Dodge City and West.  Yields have been “slightly better than feared” but pigweeds and grass coming.. so not done and subject to revision.  Irrigated is good.. 85 to 100.. or.. “was” good.. see how much these rains washed out?

The elevators are feeling it with short lines and runs of 50% of normal for harvest intake.  Some have defended their turf by price.. and boy howdie are we gonna be shopping it now.

I noticed tonight with Liberal offering $1.50 over for corn.. probably tack $0.50 to a dollar above that delivered to a buyer.. Wheat at $0.30 under would pencil into a feedlot.  If enough could be sourced..?? To switch..??

Liberal and Southwest are probably all hands on deck to source anything for feed.  Given the railroads condition it’s making it tight to ship enough corn in.  So grains are probably finding value now.

See what the reports do end of the month and what weather dictates.  Fertilizer is breaking with 32% down almost $200 or more.. I didn’t chart the peak but guessing $750.

if miller’s don’t cover.. they’ll have to wait for next year.. we need to decide dryland cropping mix for 2023 now.. plow or spray high $$$ chemicals???

the early dryland wheat.. though limited in yield was pretty decent quality.. able to blend up a lot of crap leftover from previous years.. some of which.. frankly needs to be fed.

it’s always amazing to watch how the markets solve this.. but here we are.

sitting at feed bunk values.