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Ag Talk History 7-24-2014 Markwright Cortie
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ntexcotton
Posted 6/12/2022 11:23 (#9701675 - in reply to #9701623)
Subject: RE: Ag Talk History 7-24-2014 Markwright Cortie


North Central Texas
His thoughts were flawed because of the cycle. The cycle isn't just one 10 or 11 year period. It's really 2 minor cycles that make a 21-22 year major cycle. Once a new high is set (2015) the market crashes back to the price it was 10/11 years earlier. That becomes the bottom for the next 10+ years. The market moves up the next 10+ working back to the high that was set. So 2025/26 gets us back to 2015 prices. That's not saying some months won't hit before that but it takes that long for all months to hold that price. This makes the 15 price the new bottom in 2025/26. The next 10/11 years the market will move up linear all the way into 2036. By 2036 a new high is set that will be close to double or 2015 price. So $3 fats should be common in 13 years. Once they get to that point, get scared because they are going to fall hard back to 1.60 and start the whole cycle over again.
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