Posted 10/13/2021 20:36 (#9267570 - in reply to #9267409) Subject: RE: False precision?
That sounds about right. I'm old enough to remember when a 3-day forecast was just a guess. Now, a front predicted to pass through in five days usually passes through in five days. We take it all for granted...but there has been considerable progress.
Part of this has come from vastly more powerful computers, along with better current weather data. Modelling is better, too, with better spatial resolution and more parameters tracked. But there is a limit, I think, to how much we can know about future weather. Internal variability, the "butterfly effect," cloud formation -- all inject some degree of randomness.
From a practical standpoint, I think it's more important to try to predict potentially violent storms three days in advance than it is to tell someone to wear a sweater 30 days from now.