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IF Crop conditions matter....
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ZCZFarmer
Posted 8/5/2021 07:38 (#9147389)
Subject: IF Crop conditions matter....


Minnesota
Key word IF. In all reality they should matter or why do they do them? Whatever algo they use for their yield model and prediction has to account for them in one way or another, whether through the satellites or the algo itself plugging it in. Comparing 2021 conditions as of August 1 to 2020 conditions as of August 1 yields a few states and numbers that to me stick out...

Illinois down 8% G/E year over year
Indiana up 9%
Iowa down 11%
Minnesota down 49%
Nebraska up 14%
ND and SD both down 54%
Ohio up 28%

Collectively, these states accounted for 11.3 billion bushels of the predicted crop in August 2020 last year which nationally came in at 181.4. Final ended up around 174 by January mainly from over estimations in MN, Illinois, Nebraska, IA, SD, and ND (they made cuts to some of those states due to lack of moisture and grain fill, and maybe the Derecho as Iowa was the biggest drag last year.) Something to ponder...With conditions as they are relative to last year, what component of their algo would justify a number like 181.4 that they spit out last year at this time? The only states in 2020 that they didn't lower from the August number that I just listed was Indiana and Ohio...all other states ended up much lower than the August estimate and conditions in all those states were very high at the August 1st timeline to compile this report estimate. This is likely not to happen, but regardless you can twist these numbers however you want or just laugh at them and say conditions mean nothing. BUT, if you compile some form of a formula to assess conditions to bushels, you come up with losses no matter how you slice the pie. I just took half of the % and called it bushels for each state. For example, MN would end up 24 bushels less than last years 197 or 13% off...SD would end up 27 bushels off last year or 140. Ohio ends up up 14 bushels from last year or 189. Not scientific or mathematically sound by any means, but that calculation alone takes 374 million bushels out of the carryout. Likely not to be that much especially not in August, but in the end I believe these conditions will show in the final yield numbers. Just thought I'd share what I looked into.
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