Wheat exports have not gone over the cliff.. but with reports of Black Sea Wheat being imported into the US for the first time (??) at mills on the coast..  and a record world crop on the WASDE yesterday.. tariffs not withstanding..??

“The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for larger supplies, higher consumption, increased trade, and higher stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 4.3 million tons to 1,087.9 million, mainly on higher production for the EU, Russia, and Ukraine as world production is projected at a record 794.4 million” metric tons.

https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0621.pdf

a person has to wonder what export prospects are for wheat.

Given that harvest is around the corner.. harvest is occurring in SW Oklahoma.. probably 10 days away here..

https://halebroadcasting.com/husaplayer.html

 Also the large discount of Wheat vs Corn.. generally over a dollar cheaper..

https://www.skylandgrain.com/cash-bids-and-futures/

The  expectation is that a fair amount of wheat will be fed.  Granted the inclusion rate is only a portion of the ration.. but $ 7.00 corn to critters doesn’t pencil too well right now.

One last thing.. Wheat is in a carry market on the board while Corn is inverted. I expect this premium of corn will continue to come in but... who knows?  Weather et all..

still given the dynamics.. wheat May stay in the bunk longer than previous years vs just the summer till fall harvest.

Will ethanol plants convert part of their grind next? 

no doubt there are some challengers as noted in this 2011 article.. but a blend might work..??

 https://www.intechopen.com/books/economic-effects-of-biofuel-production/limitations-and-challenges-for-wheat-based-bioethanol-production