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S Illinois | In 2012 , Dec corn peaked in Aug at 8.47 and had a crop insurance price of 7.50. Soybeans peaked at 17.89 with a crop insurance price of 15.39.
2021 spring prices were 4.58 and 11.87. This means crop insurance price max is 9.16 and 23.74. For the doubling of crop insurance to be a major worry, prices will easily need to peak above $10 this summer as prices in a weather market seldom peak after the crop is harvested. Worries about the crop size push prices higher than the actual confirmation of the crop size do. The question is will Oct corn price range between 8.75-9.50 or $3 higher than we are currently.
The 2011 corn crop carryover was sub 1 billion bu. Then the 2012 crop needed to have demand cut by 2 billion bushels. Supply and demand aren’t nearly in the rationing mode that was seen then. Inflation worries can only push price so far. | |
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Just a reminder on crop ins
