In a van, down by the river... | I rebuilt the chart by selecting analog years based on ending STOCKS/USE ratio instead of trailing correlation. I'm not posting the chart here because I'm lazy, and it tells pretty much the same story. Basically the most PROBABLE date of the high in JULY futures for years having similar STOCKS/USE ratio (i.e. 11% < C.O. < 20%) is FEBRUARY 28th; if your target is not hit by FEBRUARY 28th, either sell some that day, or hang on no later than MARCH 24th before just selling some. You might not nail the hail, but if you follow this method you should win on average, and you should rarely "screw the pooch". |
Maizeing, analog chart years?
