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NE ND | What makes you think we're going to plant 3 million MORE corn acres than last year? But just for conversation, I'll play your game and be hypothetical. Our domestic consumption is right around 11.9-12, so if we produce a 155 crop at 85M harvested acres, we're going to eat up every bit of what we produce, BEFORE we export one single kernel. With exports we're around 13.8 total use. So even if we lower exports some, we're still going to eat away at the carryout. 2 years at a 13 billion crop could would easily cut our carryout significantly.
I could easily see just ND drop between a half and a million acres alone, and we're not even much of a player in the game.
FWIW, I'm not really being a bull or a bear on this year. I'm just trying to explain the very real possibility that if we cut acres again, it's that much less of a weather event than in 2012 that needs to happen to have the same effect on production and carryout. Like it or not, we domestically consume 85-90% of what we produce, and a couple years of just average or slightly below average crops would change things drastically.
Edited by gthompson97 3/3/2016 12:03
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Weather Scare
