In a van, down by the river... | Maize is having fun at CC, so I'm going to do my best Maize impression... If you truly believe prices are going to continue to fall, just price and walk away. If you truly believe prices will rise, price the beans and buy something much closer to the nearby. While I do believe there may be a time when buying the far back month will be the best bet, all sorts of calamities can arise in the next several months that would make the spread vs the X17 (god forbid the 18) absolutely explode to an inverse, leaving folks who left bear spreads in place crying in the shower. For "Exhibit A", I give you the chart below. That year, if someone sold cash nearby and bought the "red"(?) deferred, and was stubborn enough to hang on, they would be $3.00 to the ugly in just 4 months.
 (RedSpread.JPG)
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 RedSpread.JPG (44KB - 62 downloads)
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bean market carrys maize
