I talked to one of my fuel suppliers this morning.  A couple of things:

The spread between 91 Octane Straight and 87 Octane was $.34.. most gasoline is sold as a blend of 84 Octane and 112 Octane Ethanol to make 87 Octane 10% blend.  He didn't have the straight 84 Octane price but assumed it would be similar to the spread between 87 and 91 (???.)  Thus even though Ethanol is more expensive.. it is still the cheapest Octane.. and hence since gasoline demand is up.. Thanks to the lower Crude prices.. demand for ethanol is up.. as I noted above about 2.3%

Implied exports are up about 12%  Thus both domestic and export markets are expanding.

I called about locking in Diesel Fuel for this summer...

"So since there's a carry.. and we keep walking the nearby market down.. aka Jan is like 35.??  while Feb is 38.. Mar.. 39.. etc..   We're gonna keep walking the deferred's down to $35.."

"can't argue with that.."

"However, in the August break.. we rallied about $.30 on the diesel in a week.."

"yup."

"So how much do you have contracted?"

"About.. 10..15%"

"what's normal?"

"about 50%.. everyone is waiting on a bottom.."

"So we could see another pop?"

"yup.. could."

Also you have to keep in mind that even though Ethanol is a premium for winter blend.. it's "not so much" for summer blend.. as it's trading about even with RBOB.. so.. as we know it has value above RBOB.  So there's room for values to increase.

Also keep in mind that the bulk of the ethanol fleet is in the Western Cornbelt.. where Corn is the cheapest.. and Gasoline is the most expensive.

fwiw.

We could be popping 1050 on the grind by summer..??

edit add:  Oh and the reason I called was to ask about getting a blenders pump installed so I can buy E 30.. at the pump.  I support ethanol.. I want to BUY IT and Support my industry.

he said he'd look into it.

If everyone across the production belt did the same thing.. we wouldn't have to worry about the RFS.

Cheers.