The solution for each person is really quite simple, develop a marketing plan and stick to it.  That does not mean if you decide every year you are going to hold 25% of your wheat until January, you hold 25% until January.  The plan has stop loss measures built in when it appears inevitable the market is not responding in a way we want.  Likewise the has an increase profit mode built in to delay or slow down the sale of commodity in a rising market.

The key is to have a plan, year after year, use it religously and review/modify it each new market year.  Your plan and my plan will not be the same, depending on needs and risk one is willing to take.  Everyone's plan, properly executed should result in similar $/bushel at the end of the market year.

So there it is my friend.  Develop a plan that utilizes forward sales, harvest sales and delayed sales along with any put or call options you feel necessary for whatever percentage of anticipated total crop you are comfortable with.  Include an exit strategy from the plan.  Then sit back and watch the markets.  Finally, never be afraid to pull the trigger and never look at what coulda, woulda, shoulda.

You will never hit the homerun, but you won't be the loser at the coffee shop either.  The result should be comfortable sales at a respectable average.