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S Illinois | How much higher do you believe it will go? USDA has Brazil soy up 2.5MMT of production for this upcoming year. Additionally I believe CONAB this year has them at 43.7bu/acre which if not a record yield is very close to one. For comparison the previous year was 41.3bu/acre. Bring yield down 2% and acreage up 4.5% and one has met the USDA prediction. 4.5% acreage increase is a strong amount of increase.
Also what are their input prices and financing ability going to be. This may not affect beans as much, but newly broken ground and corn both take inputs that have increased in price by a similar percentage as what their grain prices have rallied. For example, Ukraine's unrest has caused its corn output in the last 3 years to go 30.9MMT, 28.45MMT, and 26MMT. While Brazil is no where as bad as a war zone, uncertainty causes much more of a low risk posture and for most growing regions corn is a higher risk return than beans. | |
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OK time for the Annual before the Aug. corn yield guess
