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WTI vs. Brent
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JonSCKs
Posted 10/28/2014 05:18 (#4148257 - in reply to #4148062)
Subject: Driving Miss Daisy eh?


Golly you ask about World Crude Oil Spreads and then you put up a picture of Daisy.. Buddy your playing with fire.. he he he..

Okay.. might as well take a stab at it..  WTI.. CUSHING Oklahoma.. Basically the US reserves in WW2.. built at the end of feeder lines from Texas and Oklahoma.. on the way to demand in the North East.. by pipeline..  Cushing.. home to about 2,000 people.. and almost 50 myn bbls of Crude Oil storage.. largest in the world.  As it sits at the crossroads of pipelines and thus is "the market" for US demand.

Crude was found in Pa..  Rockefeller made his $$$ by controlling the choke points.. along to the North East.. The refineries and the railroad contracts etc..The center of supply moved SW to Texas.. and the center of demand expanded also to the rest of the world but that's where it started.  By WW2 the US was the world's largest petroleum producer..  which lasted almost up to 1970'ish..??  When OPEC took over..  

Then the US still the largest consumer began a transformation.. older fields fell into decline as they could not compete with cheaper imported Crude from oversea's..  Older refineries inland fell into disrepair and went bk as they had to pay higher costs for crude..  vs the Money ones making $$$ along the gulf coasts.. as those were closer to imported Crude as well as US Gulf of Mexico supply..  Thus the US has 26 refineries in Tx.. 13 in La.. and like 6 in Oklahoma and 3 in Ks..  Today with EPA compliance these puppies are worth billions of $$$ each.. the local po-dunk one down the road in Ks is doing about a byn dollar expansion to go from po dunk to po po dunk.. from ??? memory here.. something like 120 bbls per day to ?? 150 or something.. the largest in the US is like 450.. Actually there's one in Indiana then a couple along the gulf around that size.. The largest US refiner.. Valero owns like 13 refineries.. as well as own's about that many ethanol plants.. One division is ALOT more valuable than the other.. he he he..

400 k bbls of Crude per day.. that's 40% of the Bakken.. or 20% of what Texas produces.. That's about 6 x 100 car unit trains of Crude PER DAY.. if my math is correct..??  give or take..  Again Texas has like 26 of these.. not that big.. but significant most supplied by pipeline from.. places like Cushing.

It used to be that Oil would flow Inland to Cushing.. now a big deal.. about REVERSING a pipeline to go FROM Cushing BACK DOWN TO Texas as the price has risen enough to spur domestic production.. and the US oil patch is once again humming..  Before the price rise Cushing was a destination.. Now Asian markets are higher and crude is flowing BACKWARDS out of the country and even being EXPORTED from the US.. who'd of thunk that was possible?

 So the spreads from WTI OVER Brent.. is now almost inverting.. golly there's that word again.. but Bakken is HIGH COST.. with High depletion rates.. you have to punch bookoo holes to keep production running... In 20 years what is that going to look like?  We're on the upslope currently. but say Crude did fall to $60.. that would TOTALLY STOP Canada tar sand production as it would be below breakeven.. and would put a pretty decent dent in Bakken.. take the fun out of it for sure.  There's probably enough infrastructure up there now that it would not STOP it but..it would slow things down no doubt.

We've made enough dent in world markets that even KSA is starting to fret.. the last time in the 1980's they decided to quit being the residual supplier and flooded the market they got market share back.. but prices took a dive..  Some question whether OPEC has enough Crude to flood the market.. (What blew up today?)  If there was Peace over there.. then yal.. they could flood the market but.. Iraq.. Iran.. sure they got oil.. but then some 2 bit dictator wants to rule the world.. he get's over thrown at Great COST in terms of $$$ and lives.. then we have an election and some IDIOT gets elected and pulls out and then ANOTHER organization.. ISIS moves in and the story repeats...  So who knows?

Crude Oil is either going to fall in price.. or Double in price.. depending upon the day and how things are going over there..  We either need to build more pipelines into the Bakken.. or NOT depending upon the price.. If there was peace in the middle east.. and $30 Crude.. basically the Dick Cheney plan.. you wouldn't need the Bakken.. flat out would not need it... today.  Tomorrow.. it may be your lifeline...???

So there ya go.. as long as there is peace.. crude will slowly come down.. till the next flare up.. then it will probably double.. in price.. again.  The Cheaper it gets.. the more incentive there is for someone in the Middle East to do something Stupid to make it more expensive.. See Hussien invading Kuwait.. Hussien invading Iran..  Russia v Ukraine.. ISIS v ??? etc so on and so forth..  So not unlike Soybeans.. the cheaper things get.. the greater the probablility your going to see a pop at some point.. and off we go..

I don't know if any of this answers your question.. but this is "part" of the dynamic's involved..   Could Crude get cheaper.. yes that is the trend.. trends can last a long time or be broken tomorrow..  idk what it's going to do..

Good luck driving Miss Daisy.. playing with a firecracker there.. but I suppose you knew that already.. 

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