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Buxton ND | Gonna have to fill in for Maize (tink he's busy) here and give Jon something to think about.
All that storage Jon is talking about,commercials fills that storage,sell some on ZCH and some on ZCN,stay long the basis. Say basis improves maybe .30,,,right now H is +.13 and +.29 to N that .43's to store to March and .59 to store to July. Commercials will store for that kind of money,,,a .30 basis improvement is pretty good,very good for a big bushel years.
If commercials will do this,,,will the Jon's of the county do this ?
Maize had something like a .32-35 carry target,Tara .31ish,,, me I don't have any corn so.The trouble is there's gonna be lots of bushel looking to do this,,,,,,,,,,the commercial can make up their minds quicker and sell the carry QUICKER and they WILL PULL THE TRIGGER because they can make money at this,,,,,,,,,,,,,,they KNOW they can,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,they have done it for years.....................
Now bushel sold off the combine will last for awhile,,, add in for contracts at whatever price and we can not forgot those DP BUSELS to help live on til the dead of winter.
THEN bushels start running short maybe,,,payments must be made on paint,,,bankers like cash also,,,dirt payment,,,Wife,,,well,,,no cruise this year. Uncle will what some tax money,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, gonna be harder to play Section 179 this year whether its there OR NOT.... Few Uncle reports now til then, prior Jan 9th 2013 scared lots of bushels loose,including some of Jon's if I recall right ?
OK if they run short Ray explained step by step last winter how commercial will source grain out of a carry market. Ray explained it and it worked PREFECT to source corn late winter early spring. By that time cash rent 2015 is due and we need more cash. Like I've said in the past commercials/end user HAVE NOT forgotten how to use producer cash flow needs against them.
Open looks steadyish so far and I'm gone for a date with the bow ! ! ! | |
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Down to the short rows..
