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China is the winner
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JonSCKs
Posted 11/14/2012 10:11 (#2696582 - in reply to #2696393)
Subject: Demand has not rose...?!?


I'm looking at the weekly Export Inspections.  Granted the sales pace may be slowing.. However, shipments already made stand at 434 Mil Bu for this year after loading 64 mil bu this past week vs 54 mil bu this time last year and a total of 314 mil bu total for last year.. an increase of 38% or 116 Mil bushels...

Looks like MORE demand to me.

We have a smaller crop to fill this demand.. and whatever yields are projected.. the coming STOCKS reports will tell the markets what we ACTUALLY HAVE.

I agree that some of the air has come out of the upmove.. however, I'm not sure that the move is over yet.  USDA says we exported 1,362 mil bushels last year.. last month they said we would do 1,265.. they upped that 80 mln bushels on the Nov 9th report to 1,345..  So we are currently 116 mln bushels AHEAD of last year's pace where we are forecast to end at 17 miln bushels BEHIND by the end of the year.

It is not surprising to see sales take a breather.. there's a long time to go before the South American Crop is headed towards ports.. and gets loaded.. and then shipped to destinations.  Until then the US will be the main supplier.

jmho.. I could be wrong.

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