14 billion bushel corn crop.  Disaster, right?

Let's look at the WASDE report.  Unfortunately, we have to work in Metric tons.  The U.S. crop for "Corn" for 2011 was estimated at about 308 million metric tons.  A 14 billion bushel corn crop for 2012 would equate to about 350 million metric tons, an increase of 42 million metric tons.  Disaster!  Well, let's look at world corn stocks.  World ending stocks went from 144 million metric tons in 2009, to 129 million metric tons estimated for 2010-2011.  In the meantime, usage went from 822 million metric tons to 844 million metric tons, or, a difference of 22 million metric tons.  Here is a USDA publication on corn usage, it appears to be already off.  World ending stocks for corn for 2011/12 expressed in terms of use are estimated at about 52.3 days of use, the lowest level since 1973/74.But, let's just say that world corn usage expands another 18 million metric tons in 2012, to keep the trend going.  That is an increase in use of 40 million metric tons for 2009-2012, in other words, our 42 million metric ton crop will BARELY increase already record low ending stocks from 2011 levels.  What it looks like to me, is that if we grow a decent crop, a world that wants corn gets a fire sale.