For those of you who may be following the 45Z program outlined in the 2022 IRA, this article below may help fill-in the longer vision. SAF, sustainable aviation fuels, is reliant on the processing of ethanol into a form with good characteristics for aviation. You likely also know a lot of corn bushels go to US ethanol distilleries, around 200.  

For the 2025-2026 corn marketing year, the U.S. is forecast to use 5.6 billion bushels of corn for ethanol production representing +/-33% of the total U.S. corn production. Corn as exported grain or as ethanol is a BIG deal.  The United States is the world's largest ethanol producer, estimated at around 45% or higher of total global ethanol trade.  And the U.S. generally accounts for more than 50% of the world's total corn exports. 

How might the Fuel Producer's 45Z Credit benefit low-CIS corn feedstock producers? The maximum value of the 45Z tax credit for non-SAF fuels is up to $1.00 per gallon, which is dependent on meeting prevailing wage and apprenticeship requirements and the ethanol distillery achieving a significant reduction in their FOB carbon intensity. This credit is awarded to the fuel producer, and the premium passed back to the farmer for low-CI corn will depend on negotiations and market forces.

CI point value: An ethanol plant can receive a tax credit of up to 5.4 to 5.8 cents per gallon for each point their fuel's CI score is below the standard (29.1 for corn).

CI score advantage: With a CI score of 9, your corn is 20.1 points below the industry standard of 29.1.  Mitchell Hora has found that amongst his regenerative farmers, many achieved the ex-farmgate CIS of 9 to 12.

Credit per bushel: Considering three bushels of corn are used to produce one gallon of ethanol, your corn could generate a credit of over $1.02 per bushel for the ethanol plant.  Lets figure a strong cooperative effort might leverage 60% share of this Tax Credit.  Figure this share and a 200 bu/ac yield this is worth $127/acre times say 500 acres or $63,600 as tax credit.

Just how the ethanol plant can share either the CASH or 45Z tax certificate is still stuck in trumpco's IRS and USDA.  If your ethanol plant has conducted the necessary moves in 2025, the 45Z tax credit as generally outlined is law.  But with the administration's sometimes loose implementation of law, well contact your Representative.

The amount of corn used for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is a smaller, but growing, component that is not yet quantified as a specific number of bushels from the total corn crop. Instead, its contribution to corn demand is expected to increase as production capacity expands. 

In 2025 and 2026, the U.S. will maintain steady fuel ethanol production, averaging around 1.06 million barrels per day, while its role in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) will shift due to new tax credits that prioritize domestic production. SAF production is expected to grow, with rising capacity from a small number of plants, though absolute volumes will remain low and represent less than 2% of total jet fuel consumption. Key policy developments include the transition from the old Blender's Tax Credit to the new §45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, which alters eligibility and incentivizes domestic production

S&P Global indicates: "With stricter blending requirements on the way in 2026 across Europe, Latin America and Asia, demand will likely shift further towards advanced and waste-derived biofuels, while abolishing double-counting incentives in Europe is also likely to send demand upwards. This bullish outlook is likely to attract new investments in production capacity, especially for compliant feedstocks. However, political uncertainties and slow legislative processes may delay this, underscoring the need for regulatory clarity." 

https://carboncredits.com/europe-unveils-108b-clean-fuel-plan-to-decarbonize-aviation-and-shipping-by-2035