|
East of Broken Bow | Keith Mudd - 10/26/2025 13:39
The Commstock Report last week made a very good point. Won't increased imports of cattle/beef perhaps lower the prices today but encourage cow/calf producers to sell heifers as fats at the expense of increasing cow herd size? Trump seems to think producers will retain heifers to increase herd size resulting in more fed cattle down the road. Increased heifer slaughter will increase the supply of beef today but in the long run won't it have the exact opposite effect?
I raise cattle, and sell at the local sale barn. I'm in my mid-50s and I would say that on any given sale day there are maybe 2-3 cow-calf guys younger than me, and the few that are out there are pretty much just taking over the family ranch. If I had to guess I would say that half the cow/calf guys are near retirement age, and are ready or about ready to pass the torch to the next generation. If profits are good, there is a good chance for that to happen. If the kids/grandkids can work a shift at the local 7-11 for the same money, working inside instead of being out in a storm, pulling a calf out of a heifer that is all worked up on birthing hormones and wanting to stomp a mudhole in them, why would they choose the cow/calf operation? Instead, Grandpa can rent out the grass to someone running yearlings on his grass. 8 of the last 10 years there was about as much profit in doing that, as having a cow/calf herd.
Now think on this. While running the yearlings utilizes his grass, it does nothing to increase herd size, the yearlings are just grown bigger. Taking some of the shine off these high price years will not have a positive long-term impact as far as increasing herd size goes, in my opinion.
Can't speak for everywhere, but I can say I know more cow/calf guys over 60 than under 40, and by a pretty wide margin. Probably as many or more over 70 as under 40 'here'. | |
|
Could Trumps attempt to lower beef prices backfire?
