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NW Indiana | If we take a guess and say we averaged 800k sales for 5 reports in January that we are missing and throw in 5mmt for the first week of February that puts us a 40mmt in sales. With the usda lowering its estimate by 25 million bushels that leaves 11.14mmt left with 29 weeks to go or basically 380k a week. Last year during the same remaining 29 weeks we sold 14mmt with china out of the market the last several months(granted they are normally only buying new crop at that point). Rumors were floating of china willing to buy another 5mmt on closing of a deal. A deal closing would likely drop the tariff allowing private Chinese importers to purchase again. With sales to other countries being much higher than typical I still don't understand why the usda dropped exports. I remain optimistic a trade deal gets done although I think we get another extension on the truce. I hate to say it but 2019 prices are very dependent on it and if news isn't out before the planters roll the acreage mix could be way out of whack. | |
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Soybean exports
