| Remember how all the market guru's said we were gonna have a 13/14 corn carryout number over 2 Billion Bushels last year..?? US Ending Stocks 2013/14
May #
Feb Ag Outlook
Avg Guess
Range of Guesses Corn
???
2.177
1.993
1.387 - 2.427 http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=388478&posts=5#M3088652 (note NOT picking on anyone.. just point of reference for where we were at..) So.. what happened? How did we get to 1246.. lower then even the BOTTOM of the predicted range? http://usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/ | CORN | 2012/13 | 2013/14 Est. | 2014/15 Proj. | 2014/15 Proj. | | | | June | July | | | | | Million Acres | | | Area Planted | 97.2 | 95.4 | 91.7 * | 91.6 * | | Area Harvested | 87.4 | 87.7 | 84.3 * | 83.8 * | | | | | Bushels | | | Yield per Harvested Acre | 123.4 | 158.8 | 165.3 * | 165.3 * | | | | | Million Bushels | | | Beginning Stocks | 989 | 821 | 1146 | 1246 | | Production | 10780 | 13925 | 13935 | 13860 | | Imports | 162 | 35 | 30 | 30 | | Supply, Total | 11932 | 14781 | 15111 | 15136 | | Feed and Residual | 4326 | 5175 | 5250 | 5200 | | Food, Seed & Industrial 2/ | 6053 | 6460 | 6435 | 6435 | | Ethanol & by-products 3/ | 4648 | 5075 | 5050 | 5050 | | Domestic, Total | 10379 | 11635 | 11685 | 11635 | | Exports | 731 | 1900 | 1700 | 1700 | | Use, Total | 11111 | 13535 | 13385 | 13335 | | Ending Stocks | 821 | 1246 | 1726 | 1801 | | CCC Inventory | 0 | 0 | | | | Free Stocks | 821 | 1246 | | | | Outstanding Loans | 32 | 50 | | | | Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 4/ | 6.89 | 4.35 - 4.55 | 3.85 - 4.55 | 3.65 - 4.35 | | | | | | |
Part of the answer lies in Harvested acres.. remember the big debate last year about how much was not planted? I stumbled across this as I updated my acreage data below last night... Specifically.. NASS from their June 30th forecast of PLANTED acres vs what I believe is their most recent one.. (??) I believe our average 4 year drop in corn plantings vs intentions is something like 1.4 myn acres... as quoted somewhere.. in an article.. so my 1.241 is actually a little low.. given history. (look it up.. prove me wrong..) | US Corn Planted Acreage | | | | | | | | | | Initial | Final | | | Initial | Final ?? | | | NASS | 2013 | 2013 | | | 2014 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | AR | | 1,000 | 880 | -120 | | 580 | | | | | CO | | 1,250 | 1,220 | -30 | | 1,170 | | | | | IL | | 12,200 | 12,000 | -200 | | 12,000 | | | | | IN | | 6,100 | 6,000 | -100 | | 6,000 | | | | | IA | | 14,000 | 13,600 | -400 | | 13,600 | | | | | KS | | 4,500 | 4,300 | -200 | | 4,100 | | | | | KY | | 1,600 | 1,530 | -70 | | 1,550 | | | | | LA | | 750 | 680 | -70 | | 420 | | | | | MI | | 2,800 | 2,600 | -200 | | 2,550 | | | | | MN | | 8,700 | 8,600 | -100 | | 8,500 | | | | | MO | | 3,450 | 3,350 | -100 | | 3,500 | | | | | NE | | 10,200 | 9,950 | -250 | | 9,300 | | | | | NY | | 1,250 | 1,200 | -50 | | 1,160 | | | | | NC | | 950 | 930 | -20 | | 860 | | | | | ND | | 3,900 | 3,850 | -50 | | 3,050 | | | | | OH | | 3,950 | 3,900 | -50 | | 3,700 | | | | | PA | | 1,500 | 1,480 | -20 | | 1,460 | | | | | SD | | 5,900 | 6,200 | 300 | | 5,900 | | | | | TX | | 2,400 | 2,350 | -50 | | 2,100 | | | | | WI | | 4,200 | 4,100 | -100 | | 4,200 | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | | | | Total | | 97,379 | 95,365 | -2,014 | | 91,641 | -1.241 | 90.4 | ?? | | | | | 95,400 | WASDE | | | | 0.916 | | | | | | | | | | | 82.806 | | | | | | | | | | | 169 | | | | | | | | | | | 13,994 | |
Now look at the beanies which was a knock out surprise in the June Report.. EVERY SINGLE STATE ('cept Indy, NC and Tx.. "uh-hum".. and honestly is TEXAS REALLY a soybean state... he he he.. see if any lone star guys are reading this..) is a RECORD..(Seriously..?!? my BS meter is going off..) As I was entering it last night.. I would look at the record.. for the next state.. add a few and VIOLA.. darn if that wasn't pretty CLOSE to what NASS printed... golly guys.. I can pull numbers out of a hat also... hmm.. let's make.. KY.. 1,690.. HEY.. 1,690 (lol honeslty I nailed a couple of them.. lol..) and let's LA make 1,350.. nope 1,440.. yipper gonna be a BIG BEAR... So when we get certification done.. what are the REAL numbers going to be? As we saw FIRST HAND last year.. they can be SUBSTANTIALY DIFFERENT. jmho.. "I could be wrong." | US Soybeans | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Harvested acres | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | Yield | 2014 | 13 - 06 | | 14 - 13 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | AL | 145 | 150 | 180 | 310 | 430 | 360 | 295 | 335 | 425 | 43 | 500 | 275 | 183.33% | 75 | | AR | 3,000 | 3,100 | 2,790 | 3,150 | 3,270 | 3,090 | 3,270 | 3,160 | 3,230 | 43.5 | 3,350 | 130 | 4.19% | 120 | | IL | 9,450 | 10,050 | 8,150 | 8,600 | 9,350 | 9,250 | 8,860 | 8,920 | 9,420 | 49 | 10,050 | -630 | -6.27% | 630 | | IN | 5,380 | 5,680 | 4,680 | 5,200 | 5,440 | 5,290 | 5,290 | 5,140 | 5,190 | 51 | 5,490 | -490 | -8.63% | 300 | | IA | 10,050 | 10,050 | 8,520 | 8,950 | 9,530 | 10,150 | 9,230 | 9,300 | 9,240 | 44.5 | 10,040 | -810 | -8.06% | 800 | | KS | 2,850 | 3,000 | 2,550 | 3,100 | 3,650 | 4,050 | 3,750 | 3,810 | 3,540 | 36 | 4,190 | 540 | 18.00% | 650 | | KY | 1,250 | 1,380 | 1,080 | 1,320 | 1,420 | 1,380 | 1,480 | 1,470 | 1,640 | 49.5 | 1,690 | 260 | 18.84% | 50 | | LA | 850 | 780 | 590 | 970 | 940 | 1,000 | 980 | 1,115 | 1,110 | 48 | 1,440 | 330 | 42.31% | 330 | | MI | 1,990 | 1,980 | 1,740 | 1,890 | 1,990 | 2,090 | 1,940 | 1,990 | 1,890 | 44 | 2,290 | -90 | -4.55% | 400 | | MN | 6,800 | 7,200 | 6,150 | 6,950 | 7,120 | 7,410 | 7,020 | 6,990 | 6,620 | 41 | 7,420 | -580 | -8.06% | 800 | | MS | 1,590 | 1,770 | 1,420 | 2,180 | 2,030 | 2,200 | 1,800 | 1,950 | 1,990 | 45 | 2,220 | 220 | 12.43% | 230 | | MO | 4,960 | 5,150 | 4,550 | 5,000 | 5,300 | 5,450 | 5,200 | 5,260 | 5,550 | 35.5 | 5,650 | 400 | 7.77% | 100 | | NE | 4,660 | 4,800 | 3,770 | 4,700 | 4,760 | 5,350 | 4,830 | 4,990 | 4,760 | 53 | 5,350 | -40 | -0.83% | 590 | | NY | 188 | 188 | 203 | 231 | 254 | 282 | 277 | 312 | 278 | 48 | 397 | 90 | 47.87% | 119 | | NC | 1,460 | 1,390 | 1,360 | 1,570 | 1,750 | 1,520 | 1,360 | 1,580 | 1,420 | 33 | 1,670 | 30 | 2.16% | 250 | | ND | 2,900 | 3,700 | 2,990 | 3,340 | 3,870 | 3,760 | 3,950 | 4,730 | 4,620 | 30 | 5,950 | 920 | 24.86% | 1,330 | | OH | 4,480 | 4,380 | 4,130 | 4,580 | 4,530 | 4,680 | 4,540 | 4,580 | 4,430 | 49 | 4,940 | 50 | 1.14% | 510 | | PA | 420 | 450 | 420 | 440 | 445 | 465 | 490 | 520 | 535 | 49 | 600 | 85 | 18.89% | 65 | | SD | 3,850 | 3,750 | 3,180 | 4,040 | 4,190 | 4,300 | 4,070 | 4,710 | 4,580 | 40 | 4,910 | 830 | 22.13% | 330 | | TX | 230 | 200 | 82 | 185 | 190 | 180 | 90 | 110 | 95 | 25 | 125 | -105 | -52.50% | 30 | | WI | 1,580 | 1,620 | 1,330 | 1,560 | 1,620 | 1,660 | 1,600 | 1,700 | 1,550 | 38 | 1,780 | -70 | -4.32% | 230 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Total | 71,361 | 73,935 | 62,820 | 72,121 | 76,372 | 77,986 | 73,636 | 76,104 | 75,869 | 43.3 | 84,053 | 1934 | 2.62% | 8,184 | | Ave $$ | $5.66 | $6.43 | $10.10 | $9.97 | $9.59 | $11.30 | $12.50 | $14.40 | $12.70 | | | | | | | D/C % | 4% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 10% | | 7% | | | |
Edited by JonSCKs 7/31/2014 11:30
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How much will harvested acres drop?
