I am trying to fix some "garbage in , garbage out" cash flow analysis for our farm. I would like to do some sensitivity analysis to build a better business plan and help me quantify risks going forward. Does anyone have access or point me to resources of industry "accepted" distribution profiles for the ag sector (Example, standard deviation and skewness for pricing and debt&equity rates ). I would be willing to adopt some assumptions from other industries. Is this something I could approach Farm Credit Services about? Would they release emperic aggregate information like this? There seems to be little published on the in the journals - at least for the ag side. Example publications: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/9229/1/37020080.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5kg6z83f0s34-en
I would like to share results of my tinkering when complete. Thank you. |