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WEATHER #5 Teens LIKELY in AM of 4/5 4/6 4/7 over Upper Plains N WCB / Great Lakes
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DT-wxrisk
Posted 4/2/2007 13:36 (#129733)
Subject: WEATHER #5 Teens LIKELY in AM of 4/5 4/6 4/7 over Upper Plains N WCB / Great Lakes


RIGHT NOW   The morning radar shows     almost all areas of the Plains and  Midwest are   rain free. A few   scattered showers over  far southeast ILL and southwest IND  and  over  central  and western NEB    HIGH  RESOLUTION   / DETAILED   RADAR


WHAT HAPPENED  SUNDAY NIGHT?

SUNDAY   MAX TEMPS... click HERE
South of the   front  Temps were  Above Normal... Indy was  71   Columbus OH 73   St Louis  76  Little Rock 80 .  The   Upper Plains and Upper Midwest was  seasonal
 

RAINFALL  SUNDAY -  MONDAY
  Moderate   to heavy rains   fell over  NY state and New England...  light rains over  the    Upper   WCB and   Great Lakes...  and Light rains over     central MT 


SHORT TERM    (next  60 hrs )  APRIL  2-3


 Strong Low pressure area which    moves into the  Pacific NW overnight  will develop as it pulls out of the Rockies tonight and Tuesday.  This   was the system that last week the weather models kept flip-flopping back and forth as to how much rain was going to produce over the Midwest.   This Low pressure area will drop significant rain over portions of southern MN   and much of IA   overnight into Tuesday morning...   60% coverage  of 0.15 to 1.00" .  As  the Low develops it is going to pull in a ton of cold air which will eventually dominate the entire Plains and Midwest by the middle of the week.  However on Tuesday the rain will turn the snow portions of  the Dakotas  &  MN ... and significant snow could fall over portions of northern WI  and Northern MI as this system really gets cranked up Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Over the Midwest   Northeast   Deep South   as well as the  central . Lower Plains   temperatures will be  WARM with lots of readings in the 70s to perhaps near 80°  before the cold front  sweeps  thorough.



MEDIUM   RANGE   APRIL  4 - 8
 
The model that continues to show impressive ARCTIC outbreak for early April coming into  the  Upper Plains  the Midwest   the  Northeast and    even into the  Deep South.   The Low pressure area over  the eastern Great Lakes and southern Québec will combine with the strong large cold High over central Canada and developing strong north wind over the Midwest  and Northeast on the 4th &  5th.   Some of the weather models are showing temperatures dropping into the teens over the Dakotas Minnesota Northern Iowa    as well as northern  Nebraska  and into Michigan and  much of New England on the  5th  6th and 7th  and afternoon Max temperatures staying in the 30s...

WHAT COULD  GO WRONG;    The  cold is here and it will be impressive. The   2nd cold shot looks   a  bit  weaker  on this morning  models 


WEEK 2    APRIL   9-15
 
.

Overnight   and   new  Midday data data   breaks the pattern  down a  bit  faster....   with a major trough moving into the  West coast   by   April 11.   The Low  moves into  Plains  by  4/12 and into the   Midwest   by 4/13th with    good rains  rains and    large coverage.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_slp_252s.gif 

This is followed  by a  large  and bigger Low   for   4/15  and 4/16.   If this  model depiction of  conditions    of these 2  events  are correct   there will be   big increase in  TALK  of   what a crappy April it is   turning to be
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_slp_324s.gif


WHAT COULD  GO WRONG;    As a general  rule   cold weather patterns  that breakdown in the early  SPRING almost always lead to wet patterns  and given how the models  shows this  happening I  just cant  forecast a   anything  but  more   excessive   wetness  / storminess





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