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KS | I'm going to do a full breakdown when I get all the final ProFarmer data. But I wanted to share something that I found interesting from the ProFarmer tour up to this point.
If you take the yields from the five completed states that have been surveyed so far (SD, NE, IL, IN, OH) and compare the tour estimates with the August 2022 USDA yield estimates we are already seeing a decrease in production of 599.2 million bushels. That translates to 7.3 bushels per acre less than the current USDA estimate of 175.4 bushels per acre. In theory, that drops the yield to 168.1 nationally and those 5 states account for 42.86% of the total production. All 7 states being toured account for 70.7% of all US production so if Iowa and Minnesota come in lower than the current USDA estimates of these two states of 7.3 bushels per acre could decrease even further.
Demand with ethanol and exports are being questioned as to whether they might be overstated, but IF everything remains the same then just those 5 states will drop ending stocks to 788.8 million bushels. For a point of reference, August 2012 ending stocks were 650 million bushels and the final estimate was 602 million bushels in the January 2013 WASDE report.
I understand this is a very simplified way to look at these numbers but I found it interesting so I thought I would share.
SIDE NOTE:
I wanted to share a link to Ag Resources Company’s YouTube Channel'. They just started putting out information to my knowledge. It’s worth subscribing to or at very least keeping an eye on their videos. I do not work for ARC but it’s something that I enjoy reading everyday and their YouTube channel is free even if you don’t subscribe to the daily newsletters.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxP2puuoi_DE_8OYWcOUuNg
Thanks,
Mark
Edited by markhendershott 8/25/2022 15:39
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ProFarmer Yield Estimates vs. USDA Yield Estimates
