Historical revisions for Arg, Brazil soybean carryovers
JonSCKs
Posted 2/8/2019 14:28 (#7306718 - in reply to #7306652)
Subject: Brazil.. okay.. starting with Brazil then..


Brazil had 6.5 more MMT than previously thought to export. Combined with stock drawdown both in Brazil and China, your hole in the exports has been filled.

hmm.. They added to Brazil as noted.. 31.53 mmt's "beginning stocks" as of Oct 1st.. (with the better part of 3 months till Harvest STARTED in Late December..)  Even though Brazil USES 45 mmt's / 4 quarters = 11.25 mmt's per quarter.. thus 31.53 - 11.25 = 20.28'ish to fill the pipeline and export from.. - 20.3 mmt's that the US didn't sell = -0.02

hmmm.. nope.  I'm not buying THAT..

just to Refresh.. from my post below..

31 mmt's of US exports OF Which China had booked/shipped 4.29 = 26.71 from the Rest of the World this year through 12/27/18

vs

41 mmt's of US Exports OF which China had booked/shipped 24.5 mmt's = 16.5 from the Rest of the World through 12/31/17

Thus Through 12/27/18

China was down 20.3 mmt's.. (they booked another 4.95 this week + January which we do not know if any.. however, they said they did..??)

While the rest of the world is up 10.21 mmt's..

Thus -20.3 + 10.21 = down 10.09 year on year of US Soybean Exports 2017 vs 2018.

Hence my 20.3 mmt number..

Argentina.. well we are Shipping Soybeans TO them.. mostly to crush and re export as meal.. nothing really earth shattering there.. no big changes.  Although stocks were revised lower.

China.. who knows what China has?  but they drew imports down in THIS WASDE.. 2 mmt's vs Dec.. 6.1 mmt's vs Last year.. They cut Total USAGE 3.5 mmt's.. and actually added to "ending stocks" (whatever that is??) by 1.38 mmt's.

Okay so.. needed 2 mmt's less.. only needs 18.3 mmt's from Brazil.. they (China) had 23.52 ish in STOCKS 9/1/18 plus 15.9 in Production.. = 39.42 "in country" while they USE.. now.. 106.1 / 12 = 8.84 per month..

hmm..

Sept 23.52 - 8.84 + imports.. + 15.9 production = 30.58 + ?? imports from somewhere..
Oct.. 30.58 - 8.84 = 21.74 (Brazil at 31.53 - 3.75 domestic = 27.78) how much came from Brazil?
Nov.. 21.74 - 8.84 = 12.9 scraping the bottom + Brazil 27.78 - 3.75 = 24.03 - Oct Exports - Nov Exports 
Dec.. China at pipeline.. -8.84 + Brazil 24.03 - 3.75 = 20.28 - Oct Exports - Nov Exports - Dec Exports
Jan.. China now importing some from the US..  etc..

you get my point.. things had to work.. China skimped.. added more grain.. whatever.. Brazil cleaned the cupboard.. and yet is now FORECAST to EXPORT LESS this year.. Since October 1st.. (Including the above I might add..) at 79.5 mmt's than BEFORE the REVISIONS in December.. at 81 mmt's  but also a little bit more than Last year's 76.18 mmt's

While the WASDE uses 117 mmt's when others are down around 112 or even 107.. or 101...???

It's GOT to be pretty tight now.. and If they draw on stocks.. and the US REDUCES Production in 2019.. but prices rise.. why would they do that?

We've essentially got them at their breaking point now.. imho.




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