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Bavaria/Germany | I’ve been following the harvest and price reports from North America/Canada here.
Here is some information on the current harvest situation in Western and Eastern Europe:
First of all, the news today reported that producer prices are as low as they were in 2015. These are nominal figures—not adjusted for the inflation of the last 10 years! In real terms, that means they are actually about 15% lower still. On top of that, input costs (fertilizer, chemicals, fuel, machinery, etc.) are roughly 30% higher!
Pig farmers are currently losing about $70 per pig.
And due to the third heatwave in Western Europe this year, the grain harvest began nearly four weeks earlier than usual.
Yields are at most two-thirds—or even less—of a normal year's output.
The corn looks a bit strange. During the heatwave in late June—just as the corn was starting to tassel—it suffered "sunburn"; the top leaves completely withered. A good yield is no longer to be expected. And now, during this third heatwave (today it’s 100°F again with only 20% humidity), the corn looks like rolled cigarettes.
Irrigation is no longer possible in many areas due to a lack of water in lakes and rivers.
In Russia, farmers are unable to harvest because they cannot get diesel for their combine harvesters and trucks.
I am getting on in years and lived through the US farm crisis caused by Jimmy Carter (high interest rates, the export ban to Russia, etc.). From where I stand, Europe is currently experiencing a situation similar to what the US went through during that farm crisis. It looks like a significant number of farmers—perhaps 20% or more—will be forced to quit!
Shouldn't producer prices actually be skyrocketing right now?
My question to the marketing experts here on NAT:
Why aren't prices rising? Does half the world have to plunge into famine first?
Are our politicians around the world asleep? Is the "drama surrounding the Strait of Hormuz" worth a global popular uprising driven by hunger?
I know it’s difficult to answer my questions! But perhaps someone has an idea?
Is it worth buying grain contracts right now? (I’m pretty sure it is.) After all, the price could really shoot up in the short term, couldn't it?
Of course, there has to be someone able to pay those higher prices!
Right now, people everywhere are having to pour their money into sky-high oil prices and the extraordinary profits of oil companies because of the Iran conflict.
You can leave the car at home, and a vacation isn't strictly necessary—but you have to eat and drink every day! | |
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Grain Market