I didn’t intend to have this public conversation with myself.. however, trying to wrap this up.. my views.. see above.. are that ethanol is a shock absorber for Agriculture..

Pre Ethanol.. ag policy was all about set asides.. and how large to make the CRP.. we used to Pay.. or Grant loans.. for Countries to buy our grain exports..

”The US has just announced a package of loans for Iraq to buy Wheat” which they did.. right before they invaded Kuwait.. back in the day.

So we’re in a better spot today.. “Let’s do away with set asides.. and just go for it.. we’ll burn the excess as fuel and instead of the consumer subsidizing ag.. the savings in fuel costs.. because some day Crude is going to be over $30 a bbls.. (boy howdie.. got that one right..) and here we are.

People complain about the track to the promise land.. just like the Israelites fleeing Egypt.. but we are in a better spot than we were..

Now back to my wonky refiner margins on octane piece.. because the FCC crackers.. turning light gasses into octane.. at the refinery is the petroleum solution.. and so be it.. we have about enough capacity there as we do ethanol.. promote more fuel efficient engines.. higher compression.. turbo chargers etc.. with higher octane fuels.. and use both.

Ethanol is cheaper but needs the infrastructure at the retail level.

Alkylite cracked octane is probably more stable.. doesn’t absorb water.. but costs more.. see study.

depending upon market conditions.. over the long term we’ll probably appreciate both.. Cheap Alcohol vs Cheap Crude.. or lack thereof.

Yes the whole issue is complex.. I tried.. but there ya go.

again.. link to wonky article on why it’s cheaper to just blend octane from ethanol..

https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=1236902&posts=2#M11636914 

 Study..

 https://ethanolrfa.org/file/2967/Octane%20Value%20of%20Ethanol_Hoekstra_2025-06-24.pdf
 

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