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| Happy Easter and Happy Passover. First of all my only qualifications on the oil market is I have seen every episode of Dallas and Landman, just a north Iowa farmer sitting here in his 1905 farm house. But let`s say Iran doesn`t throw the suicide switch of blasting their neighbor`s oil fields, and the Strait opens, oil will probably drop like a Pumice stone . 6 months after events many times oil drops below average such as Iraq, Ukraine and Yom Kippur. What`s different than the 1970s is oil was 50% of energy where as today it`s only 30%. What`s funny is a couple months ago if you asked an analyst the over/under on $150 oil if Hormuz was closed, they would`ve likely taken the over, so far not many takers over $120. Traders aren`t "pricing in" a prolonged war (that could change Monday morning of course) .
Here is a interesting interview by Adam Taggart https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouWPpSlCbdE The interviewee "Doomberg" talks about $30 oil in the cards (I disagree with that) but he talks about demand destruction, the world could not support $200 oil and traders would rather focus on stocks going up 10X instead of the chance of oil doubling. Just kind of a contrarian outlook right or wrong. | |
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Oil price post Hormuz