| cornstalk - 3/29/2026 20:20
You are talking to yourself again.
First off I covered different topics and documented why.. my posts are long enough so that’s “why” I replied to myself. Fwiw. You obviously didn’t read them..
I have a question for you.. before I ask it.. let me explain some things.
First there’s enough “Dick Cheney” in me to understand the strategic importance of Iran in the region.
Second the world wide implications of “how this goes” can not be under estimated.. Crude Oil already has hit $150/bbls in Asia and will continue to rise.. each day.. while the straits remain closed.
Third while Putin is tied down in Ukraine.. maybe it is a good idea to reset the landscape..
Fourth..China (North Korea) May be thinking the same thing if we get entangled.
Fifth.. 90% of the Crude which flows through the straits goes to Asia.. reportedly 38% to China.. However, China.. and nobody really knows but them.. has 3 times the amount of reserves that we do.. plus a substantial “renewable” portfolio.. like us.. more capacity than transmission.. which.. can be solved given time and money.
Sixth.. W Bush promised us that we would be greeted as liberators when entering Iraq after his “Shock and Awe” campaign which he promised would last about 6 weeks.. Honestly the US military was wildly successful.. accomplishing about what he expected.. with a coalition of others helping..
‘cept we were NOT greeted as liberators.. and it took another Nine years of boots on the ground.. in fact we still have a base there now.. it cost the Republicans the White House as Obama was elected stating.. “The Iraqi war was a mistake.” As well as a couple Trillion $$$ to our treasury not to mention about 4500 lives KIA and many more damaged for life.. worth it?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_cost_of_the_Iraq_War
$2.4 Trillion..??
Flip side Vietnam cost LBJ and the democrats the White House..
So, I generally believe that the U.S. can crack open the straits.. I’m not sure it will remain open.. Open.. Closed.. Open.. Closed.. Some like China.. India.. Spain.. may align with Iran.. and May get passes.. or.. If it’s “fight’s on” and the US is successful in defeating 99 out of 100 attempts on tankers Brave enough to “shoot the gap” but the burning carcasses of those who are hit.. could be enough to make Trump look like Jimmy Carter.
China could help the effort.. while sticking the knife in our back at the same time.. that will be interesting to watch.. maybe Trump simply.. “walks away” with $100+ Crude..??
So, What say you?
Hows it going to go?
$250 Crude.. or if successful? $50?
There’s already been enough damage that will take 3 to 5 years (maybe longer) to fix back to 100% capacity.
I think both sides truly believe the other is naive.
MSNBC thinks Trump is starting WW3
Fox viewers think in a few days.. tankers will be steaming through.
Go ahead.. tell us how it’s gonna go..
I’ve laid out the risks as I see them.. I’ve purposefully with held some things I know.. until they are obvious such as Australia down to a 20 day diesel supply going into fall sowing.. (gulp) and airliners down there suspending operations for lack of affordable fuel.
Your turn..
Edited by JonSCKs 3/30/2026 06:41
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What happens if?