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| Here are my thoughts, worth what you paid for them.
2026 headwinds are inflation, higher energy and lower equity markets when compared to 2025. Plus I have this feeling that consumer demand isn't going to hold up with the pace it did in 2025.
Here's some rough math:
we are on pace to kill roughly 1.5 million less cattle in 2026, with about 1.2 million of that being Mexican imports and lower cow slaughter. If we assume a 980# carcass that's 1.25 billion # beef shortfall compared to previous years (there was a drop in imports in 25 as they halted during the yr)
We kill about 30 million hd from feedlots and assuming we maintain a 15 # increase in carcass compared with last year, that's 450 million more # due to carass weights
That nets about 775 million lbs of beef shortfall if my math is right. I was going to include dairy-beef but those animals should still be getting slaughtered whether they are holsteins or a cross.
The shortfall from Mexican imports currently tracks pretty close with the reduction in fat cattle kill numbers which obviously makes sense.
So, in summary we sure could see $260 bids, things took off last year from this point, I just feel like there is a lot more headwind this yr.
Edit: I forgot about US exports and imports from other countries compared to historical numbers. May have to go back to the drawing board.
Edited by SWMN Farmer 3/28/2026 18:57
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Fat cattle cash price