Posted 2/17/2026 07:21 (#11554548) Subject: What will the economic fallout be from deporting.. say 4 million people?
The Trump administration appears to be serious about deportations alluding that upwards of 11 million are in the US without documentation.
Under the United States Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem’s leadership this past year, DHS has been hard at work restoring the rule of law, delivering the most secure border ever, removing dangerous criminal illegal aliens, creating safer communities, strengthening cyber defense, fixing disaster response, launching initiatives that are reshaping American travel and national security, and making America safe for generations to come.
DHS has set the stage to break even more records and make even more history in President Trump’s second year.
“In President Trump’s first year back in office, nearly 3 million illegal aliens have left the U.S. because of the Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration, including an estimated 2.2 million self-deportations and more than 675,000 deportations.”
US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) expects to spend an estimated $38.3bn on a plan to acquire warehouses across the country and retrofit them into new immigration detention centers with capacity for tens of thousands of detainees, according to documents the agency sent to the governor of New Hampshire.
The documents, published on the state’s website on Thursday, disclose that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) estimates it will spend $158m retrofitting a new detention facility in Merrimack, New Hampshire, and an additional estimated $146m to operate the facility in the first three years.
According to an overview of the plans, which were first reported bythe Washington Post, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) would buy and convert 16 buildings across the US into regional processing centers, each holding between 1,000 and 1,500 people at a time. Another eight large-scale detention centers would hold 7,000 to 10,000 people at a time and serve as “the primary locations” for deportations. Detainees would spend an average of three to seven days at the processing sites before being transported to the larger facilities, where they would be held about 60 days before being deported.
The Cato Institute has a study out which Shows Immigrants have had a positive impact on our budget deficit.. generating a fiscal surplus of $14.5 Trillion to the US treasury over the past 30 years.
Recent increases in immigration have rekindled concerns about their effects on government budgets. This paper updates a model of these effects first developed by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) to shed light on how immigrants, both legal and illegal, and their children affect government budgets. This analysis is the first to estimate the cumulative fiscal effect of immigrants on federal, state, and local budgets over 30 years.
The government first began gathering detailed information on benefits use by citizenship status in 1994. The data show:
For each year from 1994 to 2023, the US immigrant population generated more in taxes than they received in benefits from all levels of government.
Over that period, immigrants created a cumulative fiscal surplus of $14.5 trillion in real 2024 US dollars, including $3.9 trillion in savings on interest on the debt.
Without immigrants, US government public debt at all levels would be at least 205 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—nearly twice its 2023 level.
These results, which do not account for any of immigration’s indirect, tax-revenue-boosting effects on economic growth, represent the lower bound of the positive fiscal effects. Even by this conservative analysis, immigrants may have already prevented a fiscal crisis.
If these deportation plans unfold how much economic damage will this do to the US economy? It’s staggering in size.. no doubt reducing employment, tax revenue and economic activity.
This issue is very political as some view this as a positive.. but just looking at the sheer numbers I do not see how that could be possible.
That is ALOT of dish washers, Gardeners, Rest Home care takers, it’s estimated that over half of ag workers are undocumented migrants.. especially in truck Crops (I refer to incorrectly as California Ag.. pickers working the fields manually for fruits and vegetables.. etc..)
For the size and scale.. it’s shocking to me that nobody is talking about these ramifications.
If realized.. This will change the economic land scape. The first 2.2 million left voluntarily.. DHS has dug hard.. see Minneapolis for the next 600,000.
It is estimated that Minneapolis ICE operations cost that city $200 million.. and we’re only getting started.
Minneapolis officials have provided an estimate on the fiscal impact of Operation Metro Surge, so far totaling at least $203 million.
The findings come from voluntary surveys from 82 of nearly 1,300 restaurants, meaning the totals are likely to grow in the following months.
"The impact we are seeing as a city will be felt for decades, even generations to come," officials note.
Just from the economic impact.. ICE claims to have detained 4,000.. however, nearly 100% of those who could obtain lawyers were released by judges. As “illegally detained.. per some reports.
This is going to be a Costly venture..
In early 2026, federal judges in Minnesota ordered the release of numerous detainees, with reports indicating nearly all such legal challenges (
60 out of 61 in one review) resulted in orders for release due to unlawful detention,The Seattle Timesthis YouTube video. Judges criticized ICE for violating nearly 100 court orders regarding detention conditions and due process duringOperation Metro Surge, this NPR article.
Judicial Action: Federal judges, including Chief Judge Patrick Schiltz, criticized the administration for ignoring court orders and violating constitutional rights.
Case Success Rate: A review of 61 cases between January 20–27, 2026, showed that immigrants won in 60 cases, with judges ordering their release, this YouTube video.
ICE Defiance: Judges reported that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) violated nearly 100 court orders in January 2026 alone, with some detainees being flown to Texas instead of being released in Minnesota, this New York Times article.
Conditions: Judges described conditions at the Whipple Federal Building as "inhumane" and violating due process, leading to orders to immediately release detainees.
What will the economic fallout be from deporting.. say 4 million people?