We’re approaching the next update in crop size.. which will be..???

Dec 1st stocks and final crop size.

Ill admit.. on positive side.. exports are huge.. record ethanol crush.. and heavier weight Fed cattle.

negative side.. mostly a good crop as this thread is about.. discussion on basis in thread below.. we’re weak on basis.. after posting $1.85 over during the drought.. 2021 ish through 2024.. $0.40 to $0.50 under.. slow to improve..  Kansas is also at a record corn production.. 900 million ish from memory.  Lower cattle numbers.. lots still full as on feed longer.. so decent corn usage.. but supply.. more piles.. first one here since before the drought

My take (and I’ve posted this before..) They may shave national yield.. add to fringe??  We have acres.. although for us dryland corn yields 125 are “good” so maybe they also trim us..???  Still stocks will be large.. My take is they can add to production last year.. add to last years Feed and Residual.. add yield.. trim this years.. trim this years F&R.. so it’s not as huge a jump.. 634 mil bu now.. on feed numbers yesterday are down.. so I question the bump year to year on F&R.. 

I can see corn acres not declining as much as first thought given the alternatives for 26.. but weather trumps.. and at some point another rally will come.  We’re almost completed on sorghum.. basis bids of a $1.30 under.. wow.. wide wheat basis also capping corn.. so we need to see some life in those markets to prop corn bids up.  I don’t believe much wheat is being fed but ethanol grind here is Max sorghum.. they still blend with corn for flowability etc so not 100%.. but.. maybe China steps in and starts buying sorghum?

Long term WE NEED NATION wide E-15.. ethanol exports are good as domestic usage is below last year.. at least as a fuel.. total domestic fuel consumption is down.  EVs??

 

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