KJ13 - 9/6/2025 14:42
Using that formula for the last ten years the estimate would have been to low about 7.5 years out of each 10 year look back.
Also it's not a WAG the methodology behind the estimate is using trendline yield and adjusting from there based on planting pace and known weather results with a average weather estimate from the point of the estimated going forward.
Seems like a scientific method to me
I thought it was a combo of planting dates and condition reports “tweaked” based upon/weighted more heavily on farmer survey ratings circa August 1? |