AgTalk Home
AgTalk Home
Search Forums | Classifieds (9) | Skins | Language
You are logged in as a guest. ( logon | register )

It's gonna be hard to tell
View previous thread :: View next thread
   Forums List -> Market TalkMessage format
 
Bigalbert2332
Posted 8/20/2017 19:08 (#6199675)
Subject: It's gonna be hard to tell


Did a walk thru on the home place in northern Sioux county ia today and there really is no way to tell what the yield is gonna be. COC for 30 years. 58 CSR1 but this ground has been raising 200 bu corn since mid 80's. High fertility and timely lime and split N applications along with variable rate pop. Started with full subsoil planted April 23. Normal May rain, 75% of normal in June, 21% of normal in July (85/100's) and 4 inches in August. Just doing a WAG, 160-170, down about 50 bu/acre.




(IMG_0605.JPG)



Attachments
----------------
Attachments IMG_0605.JPG (113KB - 137 downloads)
Top of the page Bottom of the page
maxflex540
Posted 8/20/2017 19:26 (#6199720 - in reply to #6199675)
Subject: RE: It's gonna be hard to tell


NW Iowa		I also think it'll be all over the place on the yield maps here. We could easily be 40bpa under last year. But I saw some dryland corn east of Wall, SD today that will be lucky to fill a combine once so I guess I can't complain too much.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
SoDak Farms
Posted 8/20/2017 19:34 (#6199734 - in reply to #6199720)
Subject: RE: It's gonna be hard to tell


EC SoDak		I haven't been west in 10 years, I hear lots of corn now. I look at the struggles my farm has had over the years, be tough over there I'd think.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
maxflex540
Posted 8/20/2017 20:50 (#6199948 - in reply to #6199734)
Subject: RE: It's gonna be hard to tell


NW Iowa		Judging by the planted population, which at 75mph I estimated to be 12000-15000, the yield goals are not high which is obviously appropriate for the region. But a lot of what I saw way out west was 3' tall, tasseled, no ears, and fired halfway up. I wouldn't say there was "a lot" of corn out there but it steadily increased as we went east.

What I found very interesting was seeing a lot of pretty new-looking and large grain bins from the interstate. But most ingtriuging was the co-op in Kennebec---Some huge investment made there recently in grain and fert facilities. As we pumped fuel I could see at least 50 grain bags spread all over the NW side of town. A little Googling tells me this facility is a unit train loader, which makes the need for that many grain bags during a drought unexpected to me. I realize theres a lot of different grains produced in that area too which may create a need for temporary storage? But with the weather out there this year it would almost have to be old crop??

Top of the page Bottom of the page
white shadow
Posted 8/20/2017 22:38 (#6200229 - in reply to #6199734)
Subject: 34,000 acre field of corn.......



East Central South Dakota		Picture taken today. The curse of the Diamond Ring Ranch continues and the tax payer continues to pay. One field of corn as far as you can see, about the size of a township. It's for sale if you think your good enough to end the curse.



(IMG_0157.JPG)



(IMG_0158.JPG)



Attachments
----------------
Attachments IMG_0157.JPG (118KB - 128 downloads)
Attachments (0KB - 97 downloads)
Attachments IMG_0158.JPG (109KB - 131 downloads)
Top of the page Bottom of the page
johannes
Posted 8/20/2017 22:42 (#6200239 - in reply to #6200229)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


What's the county T yield?
Top of the page Bottom of the page
white shadow
Posted 8/20/2017 22:46 (#6200250 - in reply to #6200239)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......



East Central South Dakota		I would guess 40-55, but I don't know for certain.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
carlsoncl
Posted 8/20/2017 23:04 (#6200264 - in reply to #6200250)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


Beresford, SD		Stanley county dryland T yeild is 51, just looked it up. I agree with you.....it was rented (heard rent was less than 20 dollars an acre) and planted, on a prayer it would rain......if not we get to cover the loss. Not right! Last year I guess it remained idle (couldn't get it rented out) and owner burned it down in late July.

Edited by carlsoncl 8/20/2017 23:04
Top of the page Bottom of the page
ahay68979
Posted 8/21/2017 07:18 (#6200469 - in reply to #6200264)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


Saronville NE		Needs to go back to grass the way it looks.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
Itchy
Posted 8/21/2017 08:28 (#6200582 - in reply to #6200469)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


SW Iowa		needs pivots
Top of the page Bottom of the page
hobby95
Posted 8/21/2017 12:00 (#6200902 - in reply to #6200582)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


SW MINNESOTA		Always wondered if that would be an option out there or not. I really have no interest in farming out there but there is something about the history/stories about that place that's kind of interesting.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
white shadow
Posted 8/21/2017 12:48 (#6200969 - in reply to #6200902)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......



East Central South Dakota		no surface water, no ground water---unless you go 3000 feet deep and it is warm, stinky and hit and miss. Plus all the wash outs and hills---doubt if you could find 135 acres flat enough,
Top of the page Bottom of the page
NE Ridger
Posted 8/21/2017 08:28 (#6200581 - in reply to #6200264)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


EC Nebraska
carlsoncl - 8/20/2017 23:04

Stanley county dryland T yeild is 51, just looked it up. I agree with you.....it was rented (heard rent was less than 20 dollars an acre) and planted, on a prayer it would rain......if not we get to cover the loss. Not right! Last year I guess it remained idle (couldn't get it rented out) and owner burned it down in late July.



I don't quite get it. If I'm understanding correctly, the most that could be insured for would be about $150/acre gross revenue? That level of insurance has be expensive, and even 16K corn seeds are going to run $30 or so. Surely the tenet would have to put out some sort of nitrogen fertilizer for BMP? I don't understand how it's quite worth it to run the machinery across it for 150 gross.

Top of the page Bottom of the page
paul the original
Posted 8/21/2017 12:10 (#6200913 - in reply to #6200581)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


southern MN
NE Ridger - 8/21/2017 07:28

carlsoncl - 8/20/2017 23:04

Stanley county dryland T yeild is 51, just looked it up. I agree with you.....it was rented (heard rent was less than 20 dollars an acre) and planted, on a prayer it would rain......if not we get to cover the loss. Not right! Last year I guess it remained idle (couldn't get it rented out) and owner burned it down in late July.



I don't quite get it. If I'm understanding correctly, the most that could be insured for would be about $150/acre gross revenue? That level of insurance has be expensive, and even 16K corn seeds are going to run $30 or so. Surely the tenet would have to put out some sort of nitrogen fertilizer for BMP? I don't understand how it's quite worth it to run the machinery across it for 150 gross.



Volume, of course. *

Paul
Top of the page Bottom of the page
MJD02
Posted 8/21/2017 12:35 (#6200947 - in reply to #6200581)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


West River, SD
NE Ridger - 8/21/2017 08:28

carlsoncl - 8/20/2017 23:04

Stanley county dryland T yeild is 51, just looked it up. I agree with you.....it was rented (heard rent was less than 20 dollars an acre) and planted, on a prayer it would rain......if not we get to cover the loss. Not right! Last year I guess it remained idle (couldn't get it rented out) and owner burned it down in late July.



I don't quite get it. If I'm understanding correctly, the most that could be insured for would be about $150/acre gross revenue? That level of insurance has be expensive, and even 16K corn seeds are going to run $30 or so. Surely the tenet would have to put out some sort of nitrogen fertilizer for BMP? I don't understand how it's quite worth it to run the machinery across it for 150 gross.



I was thinking about it the other day, and I figure that my total inputs per acre are probably close to what cornbelt farmers spend on seed. With that in mind, 50-60 bpa corn is not great, but not so bad either. Its not my most profitable crop, but a good part of a rotation. In my county, federal crop insurance is only on a silage basis right now, but hopefully that will change.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
carlsoncl
Posted 8/21/2017 23:05 (#6202399 - in reply to #6200581)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


Beresford, SD		My math, if farmer doesn't have to harvest (crop is zeroed out) and applied zero fertilizer......looks like a cool 500k to the plus on the venture.....hmmmmmmmmmm. Now if corn would be 20 bushel and has to harvest it, and $40/acre was spent on fertilizer it's a different story.

Edited by carlsoncl 8/21/2017 23:17
Top of the page Bottom of the page
Conan the Farmer
Posted 8/20/2017 23:23 (#6200282 - in reply to #6200229)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......



South Central Iowa		Why don't they make it a ranch again?

Looks like a 34,000 acre pasture. Considerably more with the waste. If it has failed for years, wouldn't that make more sense? How many acres per AU up there?

Edited by Conan the Farmer 8/20/2017 23:25
Top of the page Bottom of the page
Centuryfarm
Posted 8/21/2017 07:29 (#6200489 - in reply to #6200282)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


Agreed, why not turn it back to grass. You can make an ok living with cows.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
badjaccs
Posted 8/21/2017 07:29 (#6200491 - in reply to #6200282)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


Missouri		Federally subsidized crop insurance!
Top of the page Bottom of the page
MJD02
Posted 8/21/2017 12:25 (#6200935 - in reply to #6200282)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


West River, SD
Conan the Farmer - 8/20/2017 23:23

Why don't they make it a ranch again?

Looks like a 34,000 acre pasture. Considerably more with the waste. If it has failed for years, wouldn't that make more sense? How many acres per AU up there?


That would be the best thing from a stewardship standpoint, but it will probably never happen. Unfortunately out here, even on the more marginal cropland, the best return per acre most years is crop production, so large scale farmers will keep raping the land until that changes or stricter NRCS regulations no longer allow them to.

The Diamond ring place was mostly rangeland until the guy from Montana bought it. He shipped in 20 4X4 tractors with dozers to close up the washouts as they were breaking it out.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
hobby95
Posted 8/21/2017 14:03 (#6201109 - in reply to #6200935)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


SW MINNESOTA		When was it originally busted up? How did they do it? Was it done all at the same time?
Top of the page Bottom of the page
MJD02
Posted 8/21/2017 15:35 (#6201219 - in reply to #6201109)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


West River, SD		It might have been the 70s when that guy came in. Not too sure. I'm sure that some of the better ground was in crop production or hay-crp when he bought it, and some of it had not been in crop production since the homestead days or ever. I assume that they used heavy disks. I would guess that he put the ground into crop production as soon has he could, but don't think that he bought the land in one parcel. The bulk of the place is west of Highway 14 between Hayes and Midland, and there is also some land north of Philip, around the Milesville area, but I am thinking that maybe that part of the place has been sold.

A guy between Pierre and Hayes built a large reservoir and ran a few pivots from it, but I have heard that he just about went broke trying to make it work. You can still see the reservoir along highway 14, but it is now washed out. There was one pivot listed on a sale bill for the Diamond Ring land, but getting water would be a problem for most areas. Also, the soil type would possibly not be good for irrigation. In my area, irrigation would eventually turn soil into an alkali spot.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
hobby95
Posted 8/21/2017 18:14 (#6201533 - in reply to #6201219)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


SW MINNESOTA		Thanks for the info.
Like I said earlier not sure exactly why the that place has been an interest of mine for quite a while. I think it goes back to reading the story as a kid in a farm magazine about the new service truck they bought and they farmed like 50,000 acres or something like that. I just couldn't believe there were farms that big that close to home.
My BIL does quite a bit of harvesting out that way says it's a total different country out there.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
MJD02
Posted 8/21/2017 19:15 (#6201685 - in reply to #6201533)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


West River, SD		No problem, though I am 100% guaranteeing its accuracy! I have heard many stories about the guy. He considered a day off to be a drive to Pierre to get a tanker of diesel. There is a shed large enough to turn a truck-trailer around in. If the Diamond Ring farm sale video is still on youtube, you can see the shed, with a line of Challenger tractors on one side and a line of JD combines on the other.

Yes, its different country! Do you know where your BIL custom cuts?

Edited by MJD02 8/21/2017 19:17
Top of the page Bottom of the page
white shadow
Posted 8/21/2017 19:54 (#6201813 - in reply to #6201685)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......



East Central South Dakota		It is a different country, but the people are great and fun to be around. I have had the opportunity to have many west river friends and I have never met a person I didn't like...... West River with its vastness, can have a raw beauty to it also, just this year it is a shade of brown.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
paul the original
Posted 8/21/2017 23:11 (#6202408 - in reply to #6201685)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


southern MN		I happened upon this web site, with maps, soil tests, pics of buildings, copyrighted 2000, appears to be when it was for sale in 2004/5?

http://www.jimstrain.com/Diamond%20Ring/diamand_ring.htm

Paul
Top of the page Bottom of the page
jd8850
Posted 8/21/2017 23:25 (#6202421 - in reply to #6201685)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


Roseglen, North Dakota		The last thing I'm trying to do is start an argument but some of your info is a little skewed. Have followed Diamond Ring closely since 1974. The fellow that would get most of the "credit" for breaking it up was a man named Gene Armstrong and his son Vern. Have talked to Vern at length about it. Gene has passed on; believe Vern still lives in Pierre. He readily admits some of it a lot of it should have remained in grass. They broke it with early ' 70 model Versatile 700-900's and discs.

I believe the next owner was a man named John Graytec, a farming legend from Montana because of his huge acreages he farmed and operated there.

Next owner would have been a man named Wilbur Oman from Az. He owned a truck stop (or 2) in a high traffic area somewhere in Az. Story is he sold his Az property for a hefty sum and used proceeds to purchase Diamond Ring. He spent some serious coin putting up many large grain bins and the big building that is spoken of. He was a large customer of Grossenburg's in Winner, purchasing 4-5 1988 8850's, JD 9610's with stripper heads. 8850's were later traded on Cat 865's or 875's. The Cats and 9610's are part of the machinery that was on the sale that can be viewed on You-tube..I believe he also purchased additional land, bringing the total acres to around 34,000.

It was then sold to a group of investors (Iowa?) and rented to Scott Dowling. I think the last year he farmed it was 2015. Prior to Dowling renting it, it was farmed by a father/son from Miller, SD for perhaps 2-3 years.

Remember Vern telling me the best land was right around the home place, was the best soil and not as steep as some of the other ground, which only encouraged washing/gullys from heavy rains (when it did rain)

It has been intriging to follow it for over 40 years. My interest in it started when we purchased land in West River SD from a man who was a first cousin to Gene Armstrong. They both originated from Big Springs, Ne. I have to agree with the poster who said "The curse of the Diamond Ring continues". It has been called the land of extremes; I don't know if any of the owners/renters made any serious financial strides long-term, altho there have been some good crops in those years

Disclaimer: Not wanting to argue; any corrections/additions welcomed. Anyone who has farmed/ranched in that area for 40+ years would know Diamond Ring and the sequence of events better than me. Note: There are other posts on Agtalk regarding Diamond Ring. Was recently made aware that Mr. Dowling passed away in April 2017, rest his soul

Edited by jd8850 8/21/2017 23:34
Top of the page Bottom of the page
MJD02
Posted 8/22/2017 07:41 (#6202689 - in reply to #6202421)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


West River, SD
jd8850 - 8/21/2017 23:25

The last thing I'm trying to do is start an argument but some of your info is a little skewed.


Not skewed, just generalized.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
white shadow
Posted 8/22/2017 08:34 (#6202805 - in reply to #6202421)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......



East Central South Dakota		thanks for the post---you nailed it. I knew of the Miller folks.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
hobby95
Posted 8/21/2017 23:27 (#6202424 - in reply to #6201685)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


SW MINNESOTA		I'm not exactly sure where he cuts. He seemed to know the guy from draper who had sale this spring. Not sure if he cut for him or not. I remember him talking about working for Chad Olson a couple years and sounds like they may have cut part of the Diamond Ring but not exactly sure about that. He has been doing more corn and beans last couple years for a guy somewhere around Huron I believe. Think he cut 10-12 thousand acres for him and said that was about half of the acreage. Runs 2 or 3 DB120 planters. Sorry that's all I know.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
SoDak Farms
Posted 8/21/2017 01:21 (#6200311 - in reply to #6200229)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


EC SoDak		Wow. I think I'll stick over here, no matter the rent.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
frytownfarmer
Posted 8/21/2017 08:49 (#6200610 - in reply to #6200229)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......



Frytown, Iowa
white shadow - 8/20/2017 22:38

Picture taken today. The curse of the Diamond Ring Ranch continues and the tax payer continues to pay. One field of corn as far as you can see, about the size of a township. It's for sale if you think your good enough to end the curse.


What's it worth per ac? $6-700?

Top of the page Bottom of the page
white shadow
Posted 8/21/2017 09:34 (#6200676 - in reply to #6200610)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......



East Central South Dakota		Probably all of that, up to $800-$1000. I guess I shouldn't say as I don't know for sure----worth less every year, though. I do know it needs grass and cows very badly. At least the 4 foot wash outs that are every where didn't get worse, because it hasn't rained. Ranch to the west is already cutting silage. 20 miles west of this is mostly all grass and it is as brown as it can be. Talked to an old rancher at Union Center hooked on to a water wagon. I asked how long he has been hauling water to cows. He informed me this was for the house. They have been hauling water to the house for 58 years, no ground water where they live. How many of us have wives that could live like that?

The people that live out there are as tough as they come. Most on this site can't even comprehend the harshness of that country.



(IMG_0151.JPG)



Attachments
----------------
Attachments IMG_0151.JPG (77KB - 72 downloads)
Top of the page Bottom of the page
IN555
Posted 8/21/2017 10:59 (#6200791 - in reply to #6200676)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


NW Indiana		According to the rent number is should be worth $500-600
Top of the page Bottom of the page
Luckyfarmer
Posted 8/22/2017 00:08 (#6202457 - in reply to #6200791)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


Central South Dakota		You would think that, but guys have been paying between 1200-2000/ acre to own some of it................
Top of the page Bottom of the page
Dvr
Posted 8/21/2017 11:13 (#6200808 - in reply to #6200676)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


Edgerton MN		There is a good reason why they called that whole area from North Dakota to Texas "The Great American Desert" when I went to school!
Top of the page Bottom of the page
CMN
Posted 8/21/2017 12:05 (#6200904 - in reply to #6200676)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


West of Mpls MN about 50 miles on Hwy 12		"Most on this site can't even comprehend the harshness of that country".

Yes we can, that's why we don't live there.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
Woody63
Posted 8/27/2017 22:24 (#6214182 - in reply to #6200904)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


Sherman, IL		To answer a few of your questions about the farm, it is currently for sale: http://robwoodrowfarmbrokerage.com/Farm-Information

The Gunsmoke Farm owned by RD Offutt sold in the last 2 weeks for $37,500,000. The farm has 30,268 tillable acres which makes the sale $1,238 per tillable acre. RDO paid $40M for the farm: http://www.capjournal.com/news/r-d-offutt-closes-million-deeds-on-h...

Back to the Diamond Ring, the pivots haven't been used in over 30 years. When they were operable about 1,500 acres were watered. The water came from surface water reservoirs. The dam on the biggest reservoir has been washed out for quite a few years.

The corn field(s) on the main farm total just short of 23,000 acres. I did yield checks on the farm last week, the main farm will probably average in the 60 - 70 bushel range unless a frost comes too early, The Plum Creek farm will probably be around 100 bu/ac. and the Philip farm will probably be 100 - 120 bu/ac except for about 1,200 acres that got hit by hail. That may make 40 bu/ac.

This is the first year for crop insurance on corn in Haakon County where the farm is located. The T-Yield is 59 bu/ac at 75% coverage the farm(s) will have to yield below 44 bu/ac to have a claim, so it is doubtful there will be any crop insurance payments made.

According to Climate, since May 1 the farm(s) have received anywhere from 9" - 12" of rain. The drought gene's in the corn evidently work.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
Luckyfarmer
Posted 8/28/2017 20:49 (#6215646 - in reply to #6214182)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


Central South Dakota		The story going around the area from reliable source's is the outfit that bought the old Haskin's place from RDO is going to grow organic wheat and peas. IMHO they are about to get an expensive lesson if that is the route they go.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
Woody63
Posted 8/28/2017 22:43 (#6215957 - in reply to #6215646)
Subject: RE: 34,000 acre field of corn.......


Sherman, IL		The reliable sources are correct, I would expect there will be a third component of forage and/or cattle/buffalo to be included also.
Top of the page Bottom of the page
SoDak Farms
Posted 8/20/2017 19:36 (#6199737 - in reply to #6199675)
Subject: RE: It's gonna be hard to tell


EC SoDak		You catch rains this summer? Pretty good corn if not!
Top of the page Bottom of the page
Itchy
Posted 8/20/2017 21:37 (#6200099 - in reply to #6199675)
Subject: RE: It's gonna be hard to tell


SW Iowa		well, I guess you had good polination
Top of the page Bottom of the page
Jump to forum :
Search this forum
Printer friendly version
E-mail a link to this thread

(Delete cookies)