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South Central Iowa | I am going to post my corn and soy charts for the planting intentions report. First post is corn. The first chart is my speed line chart on the daily. Good interaction with the speed lines can be seen including the high capture by the 2/3 ascending of last week's key reversal and the close today at the cross of the halves ascending and descending. Strong support from the speed lines comes from the 1/3 ascending at $3.42'4. If we have the misfortune of testing it, this SRL should be very strong resistance as it is the textbook position and captures all lows. The highlighted zone is what I call the "Price Action Area." It is a horizontal support area that contains many prior highs, lows, and closes dating back to 2015 and it should give a sticking point between $3.42 and $3.48'4. The lower parallel lines listed in the second chart are in that Price Action Area as well as the 1/3 ascending speed.
The second and third charts are largely fork based charts. The first is the daily forks that I see affecting the corn market. I list notes in the chart that mention my thoughts on them. The above and below support is listed for 3/31, and the $3.48 number is where those two forks cross on 4/18/17. The third chart is the larger scale of the corn market. We are between two large weekly/monthly based forks. Without disturbance or great production, we are wedged between them until the first week of April, 2018. I have notes in the chart, but I want to make mention that we have broken the 24% Fibonacci as our summer high the past two years for a couple of weeks. In fact, we have broken the 24% Fib every year of the Ethanol Era. In spite of some of the fears, it is likely that we will break that again, so look for price protection opportunities should we approach $4.30 on the nearby; it may only last a couple of weeks or less as it has the past two years.
The fourth chart is Point and Figure. It is not much different than it has been before, which is part of why I like PnF; it erases the noise and reminds you where the market is actually at. Bullish support line is holding at $3.56'2, but should we reach $3.50 on the nearby, it will break that support and we will have our first setback since August 2016 according to PnF. More support comes in the form of a double bottom at $3.43'6, from resistance at $3.37'4. This, like the lower parallels and 1/3 SRL, is in that Price Action Area. PnF is in agreement that $3.42-$3.48'4 will be a tough area to break. Both the horizontal and vertical counts on corn give me a target on the nearby of $4.18'6 and there is double top resistance at $3.87'4 and $4.43'6 as well as from the bullish resistance line at $4.00. The upward channel is still intact in PnF, unless we break $3.50, but layers of support exist below.
I will try to post the same thing on soybeans, but might not get to it until tomorrow.
 (PlantingIntentionsCornSpeeds.png)
 (PlantingIntentionsCornForks.png)
 (PlantingIntentionsCornWeekly.png)
 (PlantingIntentionsCornPnF.png)
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 PlantingIntentionsCornSpeeds.png (82KB - 159 downloads)
PlantingIntentionsCornForks.png (86KB - 189 downloads)
PlantingIntentionsCornWeekly.png (91KB - 160 downloads)
PlantingIntentionsCornPnF.png (69KB - 194 downloads)
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Corn Charts for Planting Intentions
