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NW Indiana | As everyone seems to be in panic about the day to day price action, reading everyone's post just makes my thoughts that much clearer. I've said a few times that I believe the low for the first 6 months of the year will be within 3 trading days of the planting intentions report. It's easy to say the price action is making that call easier no doubt but what made me feel that way a couple weeks ago was the fundamentals. We have the bearish news of last years record crop, we have the bearish news of SA growing another record crop but the last piece that is the most unknown is US planting intentions. Is it really that surprising the funds don't want to be involved when it could easily be a huge surprise? I'm not a chart guy and really don't follow the funds position to the extent some on here do. I prefer to sit back and look at things from a distance to try to find the big picture. How many of you would want to be long going into this report? It seems everyone is content sitting on the sideline and I think for good reason. However from my distant spot sitting looking at the big picture I see a boat that is beginning to lean heavily in one direction. Here recently many people have ran to that side most likely based on the up coming report. So I have to ask myself what is everyone on that side of the boat going to talk about after the report is out? Unless the acreage number is well above expectations I think they are going to run out of beer sitting there thinking the party will never end. For the traders on here day to day action might be important but for the producers you only need prices to be up when you want to sell.
Edited by IN555 3/27/2017 11:27
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A bold call...
