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South Central Iowa | A lot of talk in different corners about a bleed off in soybeans this year. We are just starting to sink and we will continue sinking all through the growing season and all through the year. There is little historical evidence of this actually occurring. Looking back at the past 21 years, since I started making the chart forgetting that 96-16 would be 21, I see only one occurrence that would match those fears, 1998 and 1999. Those markets did grind their way down and never really come up. There was an early high in March of 2004, but that year is not analogous to ours because of the late spike in 2003 that was over $4 higher than the seasonal high in May of that year. 2015 also put in an early high in November of 2014 which was 30 cents better than the one we would see in July, but there was a great big dead-cat bounce off the drop of ever $6 from the May high.
This chart shows the highs in the new crop year from January 1 to September 1. For 12 straight years, our highs of those 8 months have come in the May-August time frame. As I mention in the chart, there is an 86% probability that the high is not in. If we are talking in this century, there is a 94% probability the highs are not in.
This is the continuous chart.
 (21YearsofSoy.png)
Attachments
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 21YearsofSoy.png (90KB - 81 downloads)
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Soybeans in Perspective
