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South Central Iowa | I know poor meal basis was getting a lot of talk amongst the trade 10 days ago or so along with a breakdown in Dalian meal last week, which LongKC mentioned here. I don't know if it is just a speculative thing over there or if there is a glut of soybean meal. I would think that the S&D's would show a bigger rise; but we are still lower than the past two years on global ending stocks and closer to the 2013 numbers. It's also debatable if the USDA is right on global usage of sbm; the increase from 13/14 to 14/15 was 18 mmt, 14/15 to 15/16 was 12 mmt, and currently 15/16 to 16/17 is projected to be 10 mmt. As percentage increases, those are 10%, 6%, and 4.5% respectively. Could the USDA be underestimating? Time will tell.
Yeah, I would have preferred not being in on the report, but it is what it is, I have no problem hanging in. Reaction has generally been favorable to beans and not to corn the past three years on the Intentions Report. But that stocks number has some important implications for carryout. I do think NASS will be bumping up usage on the Soys over what the Wasde's have been saying. | |
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Conan,David,155 ,fry and everyone Beans and Meal
