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South Central Iowa | You say that we will receive 18% of global soy exports for the remainder of the marketing year. Simple math: there are 72 mmt of soybeans left to export, 1/2 of the yearly total. 18% of 72 equals 13 mmt. FAS as of Thursday had us at 45.9 mmt, 45.9 plus 13 equals 58.9, without census excess. USDA has us at 55.1, so 3.8 mmt over, let's round to 4 for the census. 4 mmt is 147 million bushel; that would lower our carryout to 288 mb. That is without including that USDA is underestimating global exports; they raised China's imports 2 mmt on Thursday, which will show in the April Wasde. USDA still has 3-5 and possibly as much as 10 mmt left to raise.
It is my understanding that Brazil lacks the infrastructure to export much more than 60 mmt. USDA has them at 61.5 currently. We already have a 2 mmt increase coming in the next Wasde; where will the total 5-7 mmt increase be exported out of? If we get 1/3; that would be another 2 mmt, 73 mb, which would lower our 288 figure to 215. Throw in the ahead of pace crush and voilà; under 200 mb again.
18% is just fine. Might be on the light side if the Dollar softens more.
Edit: I want to add that trend line soybean yield was 46.0 in 2015, two years ago on fewer, better acres.
Edited by Conan the Farmer 3/25/2017 14:25
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And dearly departeds, such as Tara and Sat
