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Lots of talk about new crop sales...
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frytownfarmer
Posted 2/23/2017 00:39 (#5857319)
Subject: Lots of talk about new crop sales...



Frytown, Iowa

We have had a lot of poor pricing opportunities the past few years that puts a guy in a bad mood... and a lot of talk (my opinion more than normal) of forward selling new crop... I'm curious as to what price new crop would be at where you would be aggressive in your opinion to forward sell before harvest... but even more than that... what price for 2018???

Currently December corn for 17' is @ 3.96 and 18' is at 4.04..... say the spread dropped 10 cents and 18 was lagging... what price would you be very aggressive with 17 crop but also looking at 18? is there a price?

november soybeans for 2017 is 10.11 and 2018 nov is 9.76... I guess maybe this is a question more for corn than soy because that spread looks horrible... but still curious if you have an answer... maybe 12 and 11? for those contracts?

reading the posts of fear, poor credit with suppliers in crop talk and machinery talk... as well as recent past prices I'm sure security of decent prices with anything close to APH yields would look attractive...

not saying it would be this year... but, thats kind of the mentality that shifts a market... 

I would be heavily pre sold on both 17' and 18' if Decembers corn was at 4.65 and 4.75 and soy reached 13 and 12... those are my gut feelings right now... I have NO clue whats going on right now... we could head higher or lower flip a coin. If lower I would obviously need more time and see what yield I have to work with... but a decent price can unlock whats not physically guaranteed for more producers than just me... 

just want to know what most of agtalk feels comfortable with... what are your "oh shht ill throw in the towel on those prices" levels? Pre harvest lets say... pre august and your thinking really good chance you can get within 5% of APH or better... BOTH years priced this year...

thanks 

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