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South Central Iowa | Quiet in here today; quiet on the board too.
I agree with possible bottoming action, but it is very mixed. I added a couple long May at $10.34 which is very tepid for me. I'm not sure of it at this point. I feel a maximum downside of 40 cents in that contract, but a possible upside of 50-80 cents between now and the 3/31 report. I think for me, worth the risk. There is a May contract daily 1/2 speed line at $10.33 today. I added a little above so as not to miss opportunity.
Trade guess for acreage outlook is 90.8 on corn and 88.2 on soybeans. That outlook is at 9:00 am eastern. It is model based, no surveys on the outlook. If I recall, in early January, the model was calling for 85.5 on soybeans. I don't know why it would change much of anything. I don't know how the trade would react if it was lower. I don't know if it would actually cause any excitement; this outlook does not have the greatest track record as I have heard.
The seasonally adjusted export rate on soybeans is 146 mb ahead of USDA numbers as of now. That would mean a reduction in carryout to 274mb if realized. A sub 87-88 number at trend line with the same usage would not increase carryout.
I'm fundamentally neutral right now and will remain unless we switch to over 88 million acres. I have my doubts that will be the case. I am technically nuetral to bullish. I am bullish on a weekly and monthly basis. The daily is nuetral to me. The hourly and less is obviously negative for now. I will say that it hasn't been respecting points for that past 3-4 days. I blame that largely on contract rollover. It has sort of just been mauling around through points. This is noticeable to everyone how when a daily low is set and an hour later or so it breaks that point, but has no acceleration as would most normally occur. That makes the sell side seem to lack conviction and initiative. | |
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Grains seem ready to except Monday's low as support
