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South Central Iowa | I might answer your question both ways later Tiler. Not around computer right now. Off the top of my head, that descending line is in the low $11's this summer, so we don't need to break it in order for there to be weather premium and a better pricing opportunity than here. The lower line is somewhere around $9.10 in the autumn. Likewise, we need not break it unless we have another 50 bushel monster or trend line yield with 90 million acres. That lower line is also an old 1/3 speed line, that is part of why we stopped were we did in 2015; that speed line was created in 2014 and I could see it being with us for many years. I think the 1/3 line, which is the floor of it, doesn't get to $10 until 2020. So if the fundamentals allow, that could be something that points to a multi-year cycle higher.
Break lower, look to $8.44'2 and as JP mentioned, there is a lower median line below that which has an 80% probability of striking, I believe in the mid $7's. Break higher, and I believe the 50% of the channel I drew is around $14.00. That would need a fundamental disruption of some sort I think, but it might not have to be as major as some would like to think; just enough to trigger it and set the wheels in motion.
I am not around my computer, so I can't give you charts and better points, but like I say, I might if I get back around to it. I enjoy making charts because it makes me consider and think. Even Sat made me notice how nice of a channel we are in in soybeans and that there are Fibonaccis that are effecting us.
But I will say I make some objection to the premise of your question. Sat is a bear, but I am not an opposite bull. Sat doesn't care what the market is doing, he seems to always think that the cliff is just around the corner if we are going up or that this is the cliff now if we are going down. I don't think like that, my thoughts are flexible and I attempt to do what the market is doing. I attempt to be a swing trader; Sat attempts to mimic a short-only index trader, I suppose ,if I am being generous. | |
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