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central ontario | I do agree with what you have posted.
To me you can say most times a trend change has a very high probability when you go to a three month outer price range.
Wheat to me is the wild card all three have taken out their overhead res as in 4 year down trends placing these items directly in the long term play category of being purchased by investors,especially on this pullback in winter wheat.
The wild card is how much if any damage gets done to wheat on breaking dormancy this early in the season, next problem is the 14 day noaa forecast is taking temps way below normal,the winter wheat is what the spec trade is focused on along with the still short specs sitting in SRWW market.
Corn was behaving quite independently from winter wheat till winter wheat caught a very strong bid just before the high temps hit taking corn too new highs and then sell the high temps,as in an overextended market ,I do not think this trade is done this will take more time too sort through.
Part of the wild card may also be more acres should there be serious loss due to winter kill which could still very positive price driver if producers even have wheat to sell.All grains may benefit too a certain degree,the trade may be already be looking at the row crops from this perspective giving us this volatility.
Interesting twists and turns Conan and everyone. | |
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bean
