AgTalk Home
AgTalk Home
Search Forums | Classifieds | Skins | Language
You are logged in as a guest. ( logon | register )

bean
View previous thread :: View next thread
   Forums List -> Market TalkMessage format
 
Conan the Farmer
Posted 2/19/2017 11:16 (#5849590 - in reply to #5848388)
Subject: RE: COT and Thanks



South Central Iowa
I've mentioned you are 3/3 with calls on direction so far this year that I've seen Andre. I think Tuesday makes it 4/4; I agree that we probably head down. I am just trying to figure out where support will be and I don't like some of the fear and panic talk. Sat was saying just the other day that all that could save the soybeans now was monsoonal rains in Brazil; in reality, they haven't even broken the February low yet, so that sort of talk is absurd. What's more is he is couching it like he is telling the hard truths no one wants to hear; no he's just blustering. If we do break it, the new low becomes the seasonal "John Deere Low" and we'll see what picks it picks up off of. Trouble is breaking $9.92'6. Then a little more concern is warranted. Also, if March breaks $10.17, look for May to hold it, if it does, we never broke $10.17; I could see a fund trick that takes place during contract roll over that would encourage sellers to buy against by making them think we broke something of importance; so see if March picks up support around $10.07. I believe the descending trend line that we picked support off of on the drop to $10.17 is right around there, something to watch.

There are disagreements on trend, that is a big part of what makes a market. But Sat is selectively choosing a down trend line to support his fear-mongering, so I wanted to show that it isn't so clearly cut.

The fundamentals are somewhat bearish in appearance. But we are under the 24% Fibonacci in that channel I drew. It is not a high price we are in when time and angle (inflation & use) are considered. We may break that lower line this year, but it will be after our weather season and we will need another enormous crop. Brazil and Argentina production were projected 161 on 1/12. The market went from $10.09 to $10.80. The trade is aware of their crop size and even if it is a couple mmt larger, it won't change our price area much. The supply-side Bears, not here but involved with the actual trade, keep inflating the Brazil number to try and fish a reaction; 107... 108?...how about 110!.... No, well.... 112!!!!! It reminds me of our yield in August; 52... 53.5?... How about 55!... No, well I've heard whispers of.... 56.5!!! Yeah.... The trade knows about the big crop, it's not an Agtalk secret. We have almost zero chance of breaking some of these lows until after our planting and weather season.
Top of the page Bottom of the page


Jump to forum :
Search this forum
Printer friendly version
E-mail a link to this thread

(Delete cookies)