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Conan the Farmer
Posted 2/18/2017 13:18 (#5848057 - in reply to #5847826)
Subject: COT and Thanks



South Central Iowa
Thanks for your thoughts Blu.

You state the important point: hold $10.17 and if not, hold $9.92'6.

There are many things that can catch it between those areas. It has a very high probability of picking up support from those areas, if not $10.17 itself. The odds are good that we go to $10.17, being 15 cents away, but that is not guaranteed by any means.

The COT report, that no one has mentioned, showed that funds increased their net long position last week through Tuesday. Managed money added 18,000 longs. Wednesday was the high reversal day and Thursday was the opposite. Friday estimates, in addition to the prior two days, believe that funds liquidated 8,000 longs since the Tuesday cut-off. So in spite of last week's appearance, funds added 10,000 long positions.

I am really not trying to talk a side or be some super bull. I am not bullish or bearish right now. I just think that this panic talk needs counter-acted. It was sad to watch the November soybeans on 1/31. There were the only contract trading negative that day. They were down 3-5 cents while all the others were up 1-3, a 5 cent spread. November was trading $10.00 and because of the panic talk which is ridiculous and unwarranted at this time of year, people were selling $10.00 before it was too late. Well it is was too early to panic sell. If you want $10.00 you can have it, but that was clearly people who were panicking to save their last shot at $10.00. Don't panic sell next year's crop in January. I don't want to watch another sad day like 1/31.

Edited by Conan the Farmer 2/18/2017 13:26




(NovBeanSad.png)



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