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bean roll-over
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Conan the Farmer
Posted 2/17/2017 10:23 (#5845819 - in reply to #5845761)
Subject: RE: bean roll-over



South Central Iowa
Yes I am. It will need to get down through $9.92'6 before I am majorly concerned. $10.17 would concern me slightly. I've saved plenty of room to add in case we somehow broke down, so to be honest, that would be welcome to me. I wanted to take a big short around $11 for a down swing, so maybe a low dip with extra accumulation will make up for what looks less likely.

But I don't think we do break down. I don't think May goes through $9.92'6 until after our weather season. We increased our production 13 mmt from August to January and the market went from $9.34 to $10.80. It looks stupid, I know, but don't doubt the market. I've thought I was smarter and learned I was not. What's more, that $10.80 factored in 161 mmt out of Brazil and Argentina. Even if they get 108 and 57 for 165, will the market care any more than about our 13 mmt increase?

Also, soybeans don't post highs in January or February generally. Not impossible, but highly improbable. My thoughts. I can hang for a long way under here.

Edited by Conan the Farmer 2/17/2017 10:24
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