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South Central Iowa | It would hurt ag, everyone knows that.
The article really just states how weak China is. The only threat they have is airplanes and a handful of ag products. They would be harmed indescribably more in a trade war. Sure it would suck for us; couldn't buy near as much junk, phones would increase in price 10 fold, at least in the near term, next 5 years, and our GDP would shrink. But it would be an economic apocalypse for China and could even cause their government to collapse.
But Conan, if they don't buy Boeings they will buy Airbuses and that will hurt our company enormously. Well, first, their GDP would probably halve in a year and no one would buy airplane tickets and they wouldn't have the money to buy planes anyway. Second, we could bully Airbus into our side by telling them that we will not certify their airplanes to fly into American airports if they sell in China. Same for any other air plane manufacturer. Trust me, flying into the U.S. is the bigger deal. And if Airbus didn't want to play, Boeing takes all of their U.S. Market share.
But Conan, China holds trillions of dollars of our treasuries and could dump it on the market causing massive currency issues. One, that would hurt the Chinese holders as bad as the U.S. Two, I am not a currency expert by any means but, couldn't we just say, "China has made an economic enemy of us. Because of that, we are canceling all of our debt obligations to them. All treasury bills held by China are invalid. We do not recognize them." Three, Trump wants to devalue our currency anyway, that would probably do it.
Well what about China's military Conan? Couldn't a trade war start a real one? No. They would have a difficult time projecting their military into Vietnam or Korea. They can't take over Taiwan, that is why it hasn't happened. Our media and defense establishment likes to make fun of Russia's one smoke belching, floating trash heap of carrier. Well China's is that ship's sister. It is a Soviet handme down that China bought 15 years ago and still has yet to do anything with. It is supposedly functional now, but the obvious truth is it isn't. That is why they are doing that stupid fake island crap. They can't build one or even make one functional. There are other things on them military wise, but the truth is, China is a paper tiger internationally. It would be a bloodbath to invade, but it has no power projection capabilities whatsoever. At least Russia can sort of use their carrier.
I wish we would stop acting like they are a 100 foot tall giant and we are a little mouse all the time. As they even admitted, we have a stronger economy. Period. They would love to trade theirs for ours. And that really hits at the point of what Trump is doing. We do probably want to be a country that makes things, but there are aspects of our economy that other nations would die to have. I hope he gets the right people to help navigate that balance.
As far as Ag in a trade war. I would hope the country would find a way to help our sector since it would be the one to get hurt (along with Boeing and some import companies and retailers). Maybe massively increase biodiesel production.
But the real point is, there won't be a trade war. It would hurt us, but it would kill China.
Edited by Conan the Farmer 1/18/2017 21:28
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Ag loses in trade war, per China
