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ZWZ17 Crystal Ball?
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Cole Sibley
Posted 12/2/2016 13:25 (#5671075 - in reply to #5670996)
Subject: RE: ZWZ17 Crystal Ball?



I've tried all of AB's contracts over the years, and never came out any better than if I would have just priced it. That has just been my experience though, and is not a recommendation either way. It sounds like you understand their options well, so it is just a matter of guessing what the market is going to do. Their basis contract is in theory supposed to work good in a rising market, but who knows what the market is going to do (not me). I would like to think that Chicago wheat can't go to zero, but at this point I wouldn't bet the farm on that either.

Good luck to you either way. I'm agonizing on whether to even grow any barley again, since the change to InBev, I find it not very fun dealing with them. But good gawd why would anybody want to grow wheat?!?

P.S. to add: Gossip says that InBev is absolutely swimming in barley at this point, which leads me to believe two things 1) contracts are going to be very limited (get in fast if you are going to) and 2) basis just ain't going to get much better. Again, these are just opinions based on gossip, who really knows.

Edited by Cole Sibley 12/2/2016 13:27
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