Even though it's a carry market.. I'd look at a new crop July call for a couple of reasons..

a) acres will be down here probably as much or more vs last year.. Depends upon how much of a rally we get and the response from Sat's Spring Wheat Swedish bikini team..   do they increase acres.. or stick to their Lutefisk???  They do tend to get a little side tracked up there from time to time.. (got beer??) go figure??

b) it's kind of dry out here.. just as I posted nothing is up.. yesterday my first sowings are starting to poke through but golly it's gonna take more moisture.. just 45 minutes to my East and South one report is 7" of rain.. and episodes every 3 days since.. us?  It's  been 48 days since we've had anything over 0.20".. and the wind has blown since then making the very top soil powder dry.. we are not working the ground ahead of the drills.. dry.  That may change.. but until it does.. my 2017 crop may be my 2016 crop thats sitting in my bins.. I ain't gonna move her till conditions change.

Cash moves.. exports may become constrained as a decent chunk of the shuttle loaders are busy handling fall crops..  However their is one new outfit to my north.. Bartlett at Great Bend dedicated SOLELY to wheat.. and they are about $.30 to $.40 higher than other options at this time..  which tells ya where the market is.. High quality and protien are gonna be worth some $$$.. the other reason we are feeding wheat is because there's some junk out there.. Kub.. or someone.. ??  documented that Kansas was 3rd highest in temporary ground piles permits.. and that 3 to 5% (or more likely more) spoils before they get it picked up.. there have been some big rains out west over some of these piles.. and the nose test tells ya what the quality may be like... "Phewwww"

... so whether it gets feed or it just rots.. that Feed and RESIDUAL number is gonna go up.  Yes there;s some good quality tucked away.. but that's gonna cost someone..  "I'm thinking of a number.. does it start with 5.. or 6..??

c) As Ray J has pointed out the carry is so good that sourcing nearby stuff is gonna take a cutting torch premium to the bin door welds to open things back up..  the next opportunity to get long might be in the Dec roll.. as Sept went off the board we got a dip.. do we get another in Dec???

.. I just overall doubt that we'll gonna get another Great May fill weather for this next crop.. who knows it's been awhile since we had a late spring freeze.. for lots of reasons.. acres.. dryness.. lack of inputs.. frost.. last year's 90+ bu beau coup wonderful wheat fields here crank 20 bushels this next year.. and it's a whole different ballgame here in a few months... looking at a monthly chart.. the wheat market bleeds lower over months.. then blasts off for a couple dollar rally on Funds.. and others.. Short covering.

Who knows when??  but we are set up primed to do it again... someday...

Finally.. It can't go down forever.

???

naw.. it's gonna rally at some point.

Beautiful start to the day.. bone dry.. and 20 mph winds howling this am.. "wonderful"

Happy birthday to me...  gonna be watching the dust blow from the drill,, "a beautiful day in the neighborhood.. "

Later. 

cue Kansas.. "dust in the wind.." 

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