LODI - 9/22/2016 09:33

Jeez Sat... I'll respond, then go crawl back in my hole again. About every weather service out there is calling for weak la nina to ENSO neutral conditions for at least the next six months. Those conditions analog to warmer/drier than normal from mid-southern Brazil down through Argentina. Is it written in stone? Of course not, but you trade probabilities. Argentina has had 10+ years of soy on soy, now that other crops are competitive with soy guys are anxious to get rotations going again. Brazil is not expanding at the 5-6% of years past. Their own banking system is fragile, and the big boys who were borrowing $US to do it got turned upside down this year with the appreciation of the real vs. the greenback. It has not been full steam ahead there from what I have read. I was just simply pointing out possibilities as to why the beans aren't getting smoked with all the big yields being reported. Outside of that, yes, there's some big big areas getting way too much water here the States, so the jury is certainly still out as to whether we can beat the record by 2.5 bu/ac.