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Call risk?
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farmerbyron
Posted 8/30/2016 00:14 (#5498468 - in reply to #5498374)
Subject: RE: Educate me



Oklahoma
I understand it's pretty much a lotto ticket but the more oversold the market gets, then the greater the odds it will bring a return. If not, oh well. Not going to spend a ton because even if it moves sideways or barely up its not like I would have missed out on anything.

I went back and looked at the past 10 years with a marketing strategy of sell in June and buy calls to hold until next winter/spring. As best I can tell 6 of the 10 years I would have lost the call. But 4 of the years would have yielded a return. Some small, some larger. One year though the price went from $4 to $8 which would have been a home run if you rode it all the way up.

If nothing else this year makes me realize the need to not only have a plan but stick to the damn thing. This year when the basis went crazy it made me second guess myself. That indecision cost me $1.50.
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